St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City: match statistics

St Patrick's Athletic holds a clear statistical advantage and I expect them to win: the hosts average 2.15 goals per home match versus just 0.92 scored by Derry away, with average xG 2.21 vs 1.29. The home defense is solid — conceding only 0.54 goals per home game and keeping clean sheets in 46% of matches, while Derry concedes 1.25 goals on the road and records clean sheets in only 17% of those fixtures. St Patrick's generates far more chances (on average 20.69 shots and 6.77 on target at home) than Derry (10.75 shots and 3.58 on target), with similar conversion rates into goals (10% vs 9%), indicating superior quality of the hosts’ chances. In the short term the hosts are collecting 1.6 points per game in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss and 8 goals scored), whereas Derry average 0.6 points per game (1 win, 4 losses and 10 goals conceded), which further increases the home side’s edge. Considering these figures and the advantage in chance creation and defense, I assess the probability of a home win at about 70%, a draw 18% and an away win 12%.

Both teams have high season BTTS rates: St Patrick's 62% and Derry City 67%, versus a league average of 60%, indicating goals at both ends in most of their matches. In the last 5 games St Patrick's recorded BTTS in 80% of fixtures and Derry in 60%; both teams scored 8 goals in their last five matches, but Derry conceded 10 compared to the hosts' 5 conceded. Chance-creation metrics favor goals: St Patrick's has xG-for 1.88 and an average of 5.77 shots on target per match, Derry has xG-for 1.29 and 3.58 shots on target, while Derry's xG-against is 1.61, indicating susceptibility to conceding. Seasonal goals averages reinforce the picture — the hosts score 1.62 and concede 1.23 per match, the visitors score 0.92 and concede 1.25, and Derry’s 31 goals conceded this season further increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. Considering the 62% vs 67% season BTTS, 80% and 60% in the last 5 matches, and St Patrick's advantage in xG and shot volume, I estimate BTTS probability at about 72% vs 28% and therefore back "BTTS - Yes."

I calculated expected goals as the average of attack strength and defensive weakness: St Patrick's attack xG is 1.88, xG conceded by Derry is 1.61, giving ~1.75 xG for the home side; similarly 1.29 (Derry attack xG) and 0.95 (xG against St Patrick's) give ~1.12 for the away side, totaling 2.87 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.87 implies about a 78% probability for Over 1.5 (1 - P(0) - P(1)), which aligns with seasonal Over1.5 rates: 69% for hosts and 67% for guests (avg 68%), so Over 1.5 is the strongest signal. For the 2.5 line the model gives ~55% for Over (P(>=3)), consistent with seasonal Over2.5 54%/50% — a balanced, moderate signal. Over 3.5 is only ~32% per the model, while seasonal Over3.5 are 38% (home) and 17% (away), so Under 3.5 is more likely.

I back 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins) assigning this scenario a 26% probability. St Patrick's shows a clear advantage in chance creation: xG 1.88 versus 1.29, on average 15.92 shots versus 10.75 and 5.77 shots on target versus 3.58 for Derry, which favors goal scoring. In the last five matches the home side led at the break in 40% of games and averaged 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.4 for the visitors, while across the season the home teams’ goal average is 1.62 versus 0.92 for opponents. Additionally St Patrick's scores on average 1.23 goals in second halves (Derry only 0.42) and have a positive second-half goal balance of +8 versus -6 for the visitors, so if they take a lead at the break there is a high likelihood they will maintain it. For these reasons 1/1 is the strongest signal, with the 2/1 variant (19%) remaining a realistic alternative given that the visitors have led at half-time in 42% of their season’s matches.