St. Pauli vs Mainz 05: match statistics
St. Pauli vs Mainz 05: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
St. Pauli played Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
St. Pauli: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Mainz 05: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
St. Pauli scores 0.84 and concedes 1.71 goals per match. Mainz 05 scores 1.26 and concedes 1.58. League average: 3.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: St. Pauli 52%, Mainz 05 61%. Over 2.5: St. Pauli 52%, Mainz 05 52%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Mainz 05 has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.20. St. Pauli: 10.3 shots per match, Mainz 05: 11.7.
Match halves
St. Pauli: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.48. Mainz 05: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.65.
Goals by minute
St. Pauli: 31-45+ (7 goals). Mainz 05: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.23 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Mainz 05 win due to their clear advantage in efficiency and offense: Mainz have scored 39 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 26 and have 6 goals in the last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 3. Although St. Pauli at home averages 10.67 shots and 4.4 on target per match (xG for 1.31), Mainz away record shows 9.8 shots and 3.73 on target with xG for 1.21, but a higher conversion rate 13% vs 9% and a lower share of matches without a goal 27% vs 40% favor the visitors. In the last 5 fixtures Mainz have 0.8 points per game with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, while St. Pauli have only 0.4 points with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, indicating weaker form for the hosts. Defensively both teams are vulnerable — St. Pauli concede 1.73 goals at home on average, Mainz 1.80 away, and xG against 1.84 for Mainz suggests opponents create more quality chances, however the visitors’ superior finishing should compensate. Based on this I assess Mainz win probability at about 55%, draw 25% and home win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: St. Pauli 56% and Mainz 67%, averaging around 61%, matching the league average of 61%. Offensively they score at similar rates (St. Pauli 1.25, Mainz 1.27), and xG reflects realistic scoring chances — St. Pauli generates xG 1.55 while Mainz concedes xG 1.84; conversely Mainz generates xG 1.21 and St. Pauli concedes xG 1.34. Clean sheets are rare: St. Pauli keep them in 13% of matches, Mainz in only 7%, which lowers the probability that either side fails to score. In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 60% for St. Pauli and 40% for Mainz, but defenses have been weak — St. Pauli conceded an average of 2.2 goals, Mainz 2.0. Based on this I project BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal with a 70% vs 30% assessment for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: St. Pauli has xG_for 1.55 and Mainz xG_against 1.84, which averages to about 1.70 expected goals for the home side; Mainz has xG_for 1.21 and St. Pauli xG_against 1.34, yielding about 1.28 for the away side, total ≈2.98. Season stats show Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of St. Pauli’s matches and 93% of Mainz’s, and the league average goals per game is 3.20, so the teams’ profiles point toward an open, high-scoring game. Both sides have low clean sheet probability: St. Pauli 13% and Mainz 7%, while BTTS occurs in 56% and 67% of their matches respectively, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.98 gives roughly 80% probability for Over 1.5, about 57% for Over 2.5 and around 35% for Over 3.5, therefore the data indicates Over 1.5 as the best bet. Additionally, Mainz posts a higher shot conversion rate of 13% with an average of 3.73 shots on target versus St. Pauli’s 9% and 4.19 shots on target, which could boost their efficiency in chances.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
St. Pauli creates significantly more first-half chances: average xG 1.55 versus 1.21 for Mainz, average shots 13.56 versus 9.8 and 4.19 shots on target versus 3.73, which correlates with the hosts leading at the break in 38% of matches. Mainz, however, makes up for it with efficiency (conversion rate 13% vs 9% for St. Pauli) and in the last 5 matches averaged 0.8 points in second halves versus 0.2 points for the hosts, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. Draws are also common for both teams (season draw rate: 31% for St. Pauli and 33% for Mainz), and the proportion of matches with goals for both teams is high (BTTS 56% and 67%), so the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and the match ending level after 90 minutes is consistent with the data. Additionally, in all Mainz matches the second half featured at least one goal (100% over 0.5 in second halves), therefore I select HT/FT 1/X as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mainz 05 is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1.4 pts / match - Mainz 05
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mainz 05 is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
0.84 goals / match - St. Pauli · 1.26 goals / match - Mainz 05
Mainz 05 is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.71 goals / match - St. Pauli · 1.58 goals / match - Mainz 05
St. Pauli scores in 58% of matches (18 of 31 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 10% (3 of 31 matches).
Mainz 05 scores in 68% of matches (21 of 31 matches), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - St. Pauli
Over / Under - Mainz 05
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mainz 05 is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1.32 pts / match - Mainz 05
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 26%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
St. Pauli
Mainz 05
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| St. Pauli | Liga | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.55 | 3.23 | ▼ 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 61% | • 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 64% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 21% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 74% | 77% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 85% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: St. Pauli 0 - 1 - 0 Mainz 05. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
The Bundesliga match finished St. Pauli 1:2 Mainz 05. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
St. Pauli score 0.84 goals per game on average and Mainz 05 1.26. The Bundesliga average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 52% of St. Pauli's matches and 61% of Mainz 05's.
What form are St. Pauli and Mainz 05 in?
Over the last 5 games St. Pauli have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Mainz 05 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.