St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: match statistics
RB Leipzig is the clear favorite for this encounter. St. Pauli occupies 17th place in the table with just 25% home wins and a negative goal difference (-7) in home matches, conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game. The hosts' form is alarming – they haven't secured a single victory in their last 5 matches, and in half of their home fixtures, they failed to score at all. RB Leipzig, despite slightly poorer recent form, boasts 44% away wins, averaging 1.56 goals scored and maintaining a solid 56% clean sheet rate in away games. The offensive quality of the visitors (averaging 15.11 shots per away match) combined with St. Pauli's weak defense points towards a win for RB Leipzig. The predicted outcome is an away victory, though a draw cannot be completely ruled out should Leipzig have an off day.
St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
St. Pauli played RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 27 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
St. Pauli: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. RB Leipzig: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
St. Pauli scores 0.89 and concedes 1.72 goals per match. RB Leipzig scores 2.00 and concedes 1.33. League average: 3.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: St. Pauli 50%, RB Leipzig 44%. Over 2.5: St. Pauli 56%, RB Leipzig 61%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
RB Leipzig has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.21. St. Pauli: 10.2 shots per match, RB Leipzig: 16.3.
Match halves
St. Pauli: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.56. RB Leipzig: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.06.
Goals by minute
St. Pauli: 31-45+ (4 goals). RB Leipzig: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.23 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
RB Leipzig is the clear favorite for this encounter. St. Pauli occupies 17th place in the table with just 25% home wins and a negative goal difference (-7) in home matches, conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game. The hosts' form is alarming – they haven't secured a single victory in their last 5 matches, and in half of their home fixtures, they failed to score at all. RB Leipzig, despite slightly poorer recent form, boasts 44% away wins, averaging 1.56 goals scored and maintaining a solid 56% clean sheet rate in away games. The offensive quality of the visitors (averaging 15.11 shots per away match) combined with St. Pauli's weak defense points towards a win for RB Leipzig. The predicted outcome is an away victory, though a draw cannot be completely ruled out should Leipzig have an off day.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| St. Pauli | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
RB Leipzig is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1.2 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 125% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - St. Pauli · 2 goals / match - RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.72 goals / match - St. Pauli · 1.33 goals / match - RB Leipzig
St. Pauli scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 50% (9 of 18 matches).
RB Leipzig scores in 89% of matches (16 of 18 matches), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - St. Pauli
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 121% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1.72 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| St. Pauli | Liga | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.61 | 3.23 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 56% | 64% | ▼ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 24% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 82% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig?
The Bundesliga match finished St. Pauli 1:1 RB Leipzig. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig?
St. Pauli score 0.89 goals per game on average and RB Leipzig 2.00. The Bundesliga average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 50% of St. Pauli's matches and 44% of RB Leipzig's.
What form are St. Pauli and RB Leipzig in?
Over the last 5 games St. Pauli have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and RB Leipzig 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.