St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: match statistics
St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
St. Pauli played Wolfsburg in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
St. Pauli: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Wolfsburg: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
St. Pauli scores 0.85 and concedes 1.73 goals per match. Wolfsburg scores 1.27 and concedes 2.06. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: St. Pauli 55%, Wolfsburg 73%. Over 2.5: St. Pauli 55%, Wolfsburg 64%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Wolfsburg has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.20. St. Pauli: 10.2 shots per match, Wolfsburg: 11.7.
Match halves
St. Pauli: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.52. Wolfsburg: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
St. Pauli: 31-45+ (7 goals). Wolfsburg: 0-15 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Wolfsburg is the favorite based on the numbers: they have scored 42 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 28 and possess higher shot efficiency (14% conversion away vs 9% for the hosts). In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 4 goals, have 1 win and average 1.0 point per game, while St. Pauli scored 3 goals, recorded no wins and average only 0.2 points per game. The hosts, however, create more chances at home (avg xG 1.31, 10.63 shots and 4.31 shots on target) but convert poorly (avg 1.0 goal per game and 38% of matches without a goal). Defensively both teams are vulnerable — St. Pauli concedes 1.75 goals per home game, Wolfsburg 2.25 on the road — yet in the last 5 fixtures the visitors have conceded only 5 goals (1.0 per game) versus 12 (2.4 per game) for the hosts. Considering the season goal totals (42 vs 28), superior efficiency (14% vs 9%) and recent form (1.0 vs 0.2 pts), I give Wolfsburg the higher probability of winning, with a moderate chance of a draw or a home upset.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics strongly support BTTS: St. Pauli has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71%, Wolfsburg 75%, versus the league 62%. Both teams have only 6% clean sheets this season, meaning individually in 94% of matches they do not keep a clean sheet, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Over the long term St. Pauli concedes on average 1.88 goals per game, Wolfsburg 2.25; additionally in the last 5 matches St. Pauli concedes on average 2.4 goals, and Wolfsburg 1.0, so the hosts have been particularly susceptible to concessions recently. Offensively St. Pauli generates xG 1.59 and scores on average 1.24 goals (28 goals this season) with 13.65 shots and 4.71 on target, while Wolfsburg has xG 1.08 and averages 1.31 goals (42 goals) with 9.63 shots and 3.31 on target and a higher conversion rate 14% versus the hosts’ 9%. Additionally over 2.5 frequently occurs for them (65% and 63%), and the over + BTTS combination is 59% and 56%, therefore I recommend BTTS = Yes with probability 85% versus 15% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project the match total xG at approximately 3.26 (St. Pauli 1.84 vs Wolfsburg 1.42), based on home xG of 1.59 and Wolfsburg opponents’ xG of 2.08 ((1.59+2.08)/2=1.84). Both teams have a high percentage of both-teams-to-score games — St. Pauli 71% and Wolfsburg 75% — and season rates for matches over 2.5 goals of 65% for the home side and 63% for the visitors, which supports a multi-goal scenario. St. Pauli average 13.65 shots and 4.71 on target, Wolfsburg 9.63 and 3.31; with conversion rates of 14% for Wolfsburg vs 9% for St. Pauli this raises the likelihood of away goals and a higher overall score. In their last 5 matches St. Pauli have conceded 12 goals and Wolfsburg 5, which further argues for more goals and an open contest. A distribution model with an expected total of 3.26 yields P(over1.5)≈84%, P(over2.5)≈64% and P(over3.5)≈41%, therefore the strongest signal is an Over 1.5 goals bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Wolfsburg leads at the break and wins), because Wolfsburg led at the break in 38% of their away matches, while St. Pauli led at home in only 18%. The visitors also have a better season points average (1.0 vs. the hosts’ 0.59) and win 25% of their away games compared to St. Pauli’s 12% home wins, which increases the chances of maintaining a lead after the break. Although St. Pauli generate more xG (1.59 vs. 1.08), their shot conversion rate is lower (9% vs. 14%), so created chances are converted less efficiently. Additionally, St. Pauli conceded 8 goals in minutes 31–45 and were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last 5 matches; second halves average 1.76–2.06 goals (home/away), which favors the visitors holding their lead.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| St. Pauli | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wolfsburg is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1 pts / match - Wolfsburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wolfsburg is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
0.85 goals / match - St. Pauli · 1.27 goals / match - Wolfsburg
St. Pauli is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.73 goals / match - St. Pauli · 2.06 goals / match - Wolfsburg
St. Pauli scores in 61% of matches (20 of 33 matches), while Wolfsburg keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 33 matches).
Wolfsburg scores in 76% of matches (25 of 33 matches), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 15% (5 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - St. Pauli
Over / Under - Wolfsburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wolfsburg is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - St. Pauli · 1.21 pts / match - Wolfsburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Wolfsburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -13 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
St. Pauli
Wolfsburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| St. Pauli | Liga | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.58 | 3.22 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 62% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 64% | • 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 21% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 82% | 86% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: St. Pauli 0 - 0 - 1 Wolfsburg. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
The Bundesliga match finished St. Pauli 1:3 Wolfsburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
St. Pauli score 0.85 goals per game on average and Wolfsburg 1.27. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 55% of St. Pauli's matches and 73% of Wolfsburg's.
What form are St. Pauli and Wolfsburg in?
Over the last 5 games St. Pauli have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Wolfsburg 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg?
The statistical background for St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.