Stabæk vs Raufoss: match statistics
Stabæk vs Raufoss: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Stabæk played Raufoss in First Division (Norway). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Stabæk: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Raufoss: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Stabæk scores 2.50 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Raufoss scores 0.67 and concedes 2.17. League average: 3.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Stabæk 50%, Raufoss 67%. Over 2.5: Stabæk 83%, Raufoss 50%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 71%.
xG, shots and style
Stabæk has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.12. Stabæk: 13.5 shots per match, Raufoss: 11.0.
Match halves
Stabæk: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.17. Raufoss: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Stabæk: 0-15 (3 goals). Raufoss: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 3.40 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 71%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Stabæk is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd while Raufoss are 15th. At home Stabæk have scored 15 goals this season (avg. 3.5 per match) and 14 in their last 5 appearances, with an offensive xG of 1.7, whereas Raufoss have 4 goals this season, 3 in their last 5 matches and an offensive xG of 0.93. The hosts average 16 shots and 4.5 on target per match with a conversion rate of 22%, while the visitors average only 9.67 shots and 1 on target away with a 7% conversion; additionally Raufoss have 33% of away matches without scoring, Stabæk 0%. Defensively Stabæk concede 1.0 goal at home on average and have an xG against of 1.24, whereas Raufoss concede 2.67 goals away with an xG against of 2.01; the hosts also have 50% clean sheets at home, the visitors 0%. Form confirms the advantage: Stabæk in their last 5 matches have 4 wins and 1 draw (2.6 pts per match), Raufoss 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0.2 pts per match), therefore I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season-long stats show a high BTTS participation: 67% for Stabæk and 67% for Raufoss, versus a league average of 53%. However, form over the last 5 matches signals the opposite for the home side — Stabæk in their last 5 games averaged 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (14 scored and 4 conceded), and their BTTS rate in those five matches is only 40%. Raufoss has a seasonally weak attack (0.67 goals away, 4 goals in the season) and in the last 5 matches scored only 3 goals (0.6 per game), with only 1.0 on-target shot on average and xG around 0.96. Raufoss, however, concedes a lot: seasonally 2.67 goals conceded away and xG against 2.01, while Stabæk creates more chances (home xG 1.32, 12.33 shots and 2.33 on target), suggesting a home advantage and likely results of 1-0 or 2-0. Considering these numbers (high season-long BTTS 67% versus Stabæk’s concrete advantage in the last 5 and Raufoss’s offensive weakness), I assign 55% to 'No' and 45% to 'BTTS - Yes', selecting 'No' as the stronger signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model forecasts 1.67 expected goals for Stabæk and 1.04 for Raufoss (total 2.71), calculated as the xG average: Stabæk has an attacking xG of 1.32 while Raufoss concedes 2.01 xG per match; Raufoss has an attacking xG of 0.93 with 1.15 xG conceded by Stabæk. With a sum λ=2.71 the Poisson distribution yields about a 75% chance of more than 1.5 goals, ~51% for over 2.5 goals and ~29% for over 3.5 goals. Form support is clear: Stabæk scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 avg), while Raufoss scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 10 (2.0), which favors intensified home attacking. Seasonal stats also support goals – both teams have 'over 1.5' in 67% of matches, the league averages 3.34 goals per match, and Stabæk attempts 12.33 shots per game (2.33 on target) versus Raufoss 9.67 (1.0), increasing goal probability. Based on this, the strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5 with an estimated probability of ~75%, while Over 2.5 has only moderate support (~51%) and Over 3.5 is less likely (~29%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Stabæk is the clear favorite: in the last 5 matches the home side won 4 of 5 (80%), were leading at the break in 3 of 5 (60%) and score on average 1.6 goals by half-time, while Raufoss in their last 5 have 0 wins, led at the break in 0 matches and score on average 0.2 goals by half-time. Additionally Stabæk generate higher xG (1.32 vs 0.93) and more shots (12.33 vs 9.67), and across the last 5 matches score on average 2.8 goals versus Raufoss’s 0.6, which translates into a greater ability to score in both the first and second half. Raufoss have clear defensive issues: seasonally they concede an average of 2.67 goals per match, 2.0 in the last 5 matches, and have 0 points per game with a 100% loss rate this season, which limits the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. Given these data I consider the scenario of Stabæk leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time (1/1) the strongest and assign it a 55% probability; alternatives are draw/draw (X/X) 12% or draw then home win after the break (X/1) 10%, and the possibility of a Raufoss comeback (1/2, X/2, 2/2) I assess collectively at only 8%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Stabæk | Raufoss | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 15% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Stabæk is 1200% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Stabæk · 0.2 pts / match - Raufoss
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Stabæk is 273% better for: goals scored per match.
2.5 goals / match - Stabæk · 0.67 goals / match - Raufoss
Stabæk is 117% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Stabæk · 2.17 goals / match - Raufoss
Stabæk scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Raufoss keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Raufoss scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Stabæk keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Stabæk
Over / Under - Raufoss
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stabæk is 455% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.83 pts / match - Stabæk · 0.33 pts / match - Raufoss
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Stabæk - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Raufoss - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Stabæk
Raufoss
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Stabæk | Liga | Raufoss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 3.40 | ▼ 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 83% | 71% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 75% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 83% | 85% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Stabæk 1 - 0 - 1 Raufoss. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Stabæk vs Raufoss?
The First Division match finished Stabæk 1:2 Raufoss. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabæk and Raufoss?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Stabæk won 1, Raufoss won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Stabæk vs Raufoss?
Stabæk score 2.50 goals per game on average and Raufoss 0.67. The First Division average is 3.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 71% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Stabæk's matches and 67% of Raufoss's.
What form are Stabæk and Raufoss in?
Over the last 5 games Stabæk have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Raufoss 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Stabæk vs Raufoss?
The statistical background for Stabæk vs Raufoss — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.