Stal Kraśnik vs Wisłoka Dębica: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Wisłoka Dębica is in markedly better form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws and earn an average of 2.2 points per game, whereas Stal has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses and only 0.2 points per game. The defensive gap is clear — Stal concedes an average of 1.71 goals at home and has 0% clean sheets, while Wisłoka as the away side concedes only 0.86 goals and has a 29% clean sheet rate; in the last 5 matches Stal has conceded 7 goals, Wisłoka only 2. Offensively both teams register a similar number of shots (approx. 11 per game and 3.75–3.86 shots on target), but Wisłoka’s conversion rate is 10% versus Stal’s 5%, giving them an edge with xG 1.44 compared to the home side’s 1.29. Considering Stal’s poor form and 36% of home matches without a goal against Wisłoka’s efficiency, I rate the chances as: away win 65%, draw 20%, home win 15%.

Stal Kraśnik as the home side has a very low BTTS rate — only 15% this season — and kept a clean sheet in 54% of matches with an average of 0.62 goals scored per game, which strongly supports No Goal. Wisłoka Dębica posts a seasonal BTTS of 71% and averages 1.36 goals per game, but their BTTS in the last 5 matches dropped to 40% and they conceded only 0.4 goals on average in that period, weakening the case for BTTS - Yes. Additionally, Stal has scored just 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per game) and conceded 7 (1.4 per game), and their xG of 1.36 versus actual 0.62 indicates very low finishing efficiency (conversion rate 5% versus Wisłoka’s 10%). Although both teams generate xG (1.36 vs 1.44) and the league BTTS level is 57%, the hosts’ numeric edge (54% clean sheets and 15% BTTS) favors the No Goal scenario.

Average xG and opponent defense yield expected goals of about 1.29 for Stal Kraśnik (averaging home xG_for 1.36 and away xG_against 1.21) and 1.23 for Wisłoka Dębica (averaging away xG_for 1.44 and home xG_against 1.03), totaling 2.52. Using a Poisson distribution with total lambda 2.52, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is ~72%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ~46%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ~25%. Wisłoka scores on average 1.36 goals and has 71% of matches with both teams scoring, while Stal records only 0.62 goals per match and a low shot conversion rate of 5%, limiting its contribution to the total goals. Additionally, the league average is 3.08 goals per match, and in the last 5 matches xG were ~1.28 for home sides and 1.33 for away sides (total ~2.61), which also supports a goals-heavy scenario. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) with a probability of about 72%.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: the home side were level at the break in 82% of their matches this season, the visitors in 64%, and in Wisłoka’s last five fixtures HT was a draw 100% of the time. The first half should be low-scoring — Stal averages 0.27 goals by half-time, Wisłoka 0.45, and the hosts have only six HT goals this season versus 11 HT goals for the visitors. Wisłoka, however, holds the advantage after the break: Wisłoka’s goals per match is 1.36 versus Stal’s 0.62, Wisłoka’s xG is 1.44 against Stal’s 1.36, a higher conversion rate (10% vs 5%), and more on-target shots (3.86 vs 3.29). Form supports this — in their last five games Wisłoka have won three and drawn two (60% wins), while Stal have zero wins and four defeats in their last five (0% wins, 80% defeats). Therefore the most reliable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Wisłoka win after 90 minutes (X/2), which is why the highest assigned probability is attributed to that outcome.