Stargard Szczeciński vs Wda Świecie: match statistics

Stargard Szczeciński has clearly superior recent form over the last 5 matches: they scored 11 goals with a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, conceding only 2 goals, averaging 2.2 goals for and 0.4 goals against per match. Wda Świecie scored 6 goals in that period with 1 win and 4 losses, but crucially conceded 19 goals in 5 games, i.e. 3.8 goals against per match. The difference in points efficiency is significant: the home side averages 2.2 points per match in the last five, while the visitors average only 0.6 points per match. Considering the hosts’ offensive advantage (11 vs 6 goals) and the huge defensive disparity (2 vs 19 conceded), Stargard is the clear favorite for this fixture.

In the last 5 matches Stargard scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) and conceded 2 goals (0.4 avg), while Wda scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and conceded 19 goals (3.8 avg). From an xG perspective, Stargard has xG_for 2.1 against opponents' xG_against 1.76 – estimated expected goals for the home side are about 1.93; for Wda xG_for 1.42 against the home side's xG_against 1.1 gives roughly 1.26 expected goals. With that distribution the probability Stargard scores at least once is ~85% (1 - e^-1.93), and Wda scores at least once is ~72% (1 - e^-1.26), yielding a multiplicative probability of about 61% for BTTS - Yes. The last 5 matches show BTTS in 40% for Stargard and 60% for Wda (average 50%), but Wda's very high goals conceded (19 in 5 matches, 3.8 avg) and solid xG for both sides argue for a higher likelihood of both teams scoring than a routine clean sheet for the home team. As a result the strongest signal from the data points to BTTS = Yes (around 61%) versus 39% for No.

In the last 5 matches Stargard scored 11 goals and conceded 2 (avg. 2.2 scored and 0.4 conceded), while Wda scored 6 and conceded 19 (avg. 1.2 scored and 3.8 conceded). xG in the last 5 is 2.1 for Stargard and 1.42 for Wda, and xG against is 1.1 (for the home side) and 1.76 (for the visitors); the average of these pairs gives 1.93 xG for the home team and 1.26 xG for the away team, total 3.19. A Poisson model with λ=3.19 suggests roughly an 83% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 62% for Over 2.5 goals and around 40% for Over 3.5 goals. Additionally, the percentage of matches above 2.5 is 60% for the home team and 80% for the visitors (avg. 70%), which reinforces the signal for at least 3 goals; therefore I recommend playing Over at the 2.5 line as the strongest signal.

Stargard has shown a clear advantage in the last five matches: they average 2.2 goals scored per game and concede only 0.4, winning 3 of 5 matches (60%) and leading at the break in 4 of 5 (80%), with an average of 1.2 goals by halftime. Wda is in poorer form: only 1 win and 4 losses (20%/80%), they did not lead at halftime in any of the five matches (0%) and were behind at the break in 3 of 5 (60%), averaging 0.4 goals scored by halftime and 2.0 conceded. Therefore the strongest signal is the home team leading at the break and holding the win to full-time (1/1) — the hosts led at the break in 80% and won 60% of their recent matches. Draw scenarios at halftime (the hosts were level in 40% of matches and had a halftime draw in 20% of cases; the visitors rarely led at the break) receive moderate probability, hence 1/X and X/X carry significant but lower values. Additionally, the fact that the hosts conceded no goals by halftime in these five matches (0.0 average), while the visitors concede an average of 3.8 goals per match (and 2.0 by halftime), reinforces the expectation of a quick Stargard lead and maintenance of the result.