Start vs Fredrikstad: match statistics

Start are only 16th in the standings, but Fredrikstad lose as many as 75% of their away matches, score just 0.75 goals per game and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts average 0.86 goals at home, but create significantly better chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.56 compared with 1.08 for the visitors away from home. Fredrikstad’s defence concedes 2.38 goals per away game and allows opponents an xG of 1.86, while Start concede an average of 1.86 goals at home. Both teams have been inefficient in their last five matches, with Start scoring 4 goals and Fredrikstad 3; however, the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away games. The superior quality of chances created and Fredrikstad’s very poor away defensive record slightly favour a much-needed breakthrough for Start.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Fredrikstad’s limited attacking efficiency: the visitors score just 0.75 goals per match on average and failed to score in 50% of their league games. In their last five appearances, they scored only 3 goals, averaging 0.6 per match, while both teams found the net in just 20% of those fixtures. Start have a weak defence, conceding an average of 1.14 goals this season and as many as 2.2 across their last five matches, which gives the visitors a reasonable chance of ending their scoring drought. At the same time, the hosts should be more likely to score themselves: Fredrikstad have kept no clean sheets, concede an average of 2.38 goals, and Start generate average xG of 1.54. However, the more likely scenario remains one in which Start exploit their opponents’ defensive weakness, while the ineffective visitors fail to score, meaning at least one team will finish the match without a goal.

Start average 1.43 goals at home, while Fredrikstad concede as many as 2.38 goals away from home, clearly increasing the hosts’ scoring potential. At the same time, Start’s average xG stands at 1.54, whereas the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.86 xG per match. Over 1.5 goals was recorded in 86% of Start’s matches and 88% of Fredrikstad’s games, while both teams have scored at least one goal in every match so far. Although the teams have scored only 0.8 and 0.6 goals per game respectively across their last five appearances, Start conceded 2.2 goals per match during this period, while Fredrikstad conceded 1.6. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ weak defensive profile and the very high historical frequency of two-goal games limit the risk of a low-scoring outcome.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Start win, as Fredrikstad did not lead at the break in any of their eight away matches and went into half-time level in 50% of them. Start average 0.86 goals scored before the break at home, while the visitors average only 0.25 away, although the teams’ last five matches point to a more cautious start: they have scored an average of 0.4 and 0.2 first-half goals, respectively. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should grow, as Fredrikstad concede an average of 1.5 goals in second halves away from home and have lost 63% of such periods. Start’s eventual win is also supported by significantly stronger home-season figures: 57% wins and 1.86 points per match, compared with Fredrikstad’s 13% wins and 0.5 points away from home. The hosts’ attacking potential is reflected in an xG of 1.54, while the visitors’ defensive xG stands at 1.86, and Fredrikstad have conceded an average of 2.38 goals per away league match.