Start vs Viking: match statistics

Viking is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd with a season record of 11 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 34 goals scored and 14 conceded, whereas Start are 16th with 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, 16 goals for and 34 against. At home Start average 1.0 goals scored and concede 1.67 with average xG 1.42 and xG against 1.44, while Viking away score 1.38 on average, concede 0.88 and register xG 1.73 versus xG against 1.28. The visitors create more chances and are more efficient: on average 4.75 shots on target and 14.75 shots per game with a conversion rate of 9%, hosts have 3.33 shots on target and 13 shots with an 8% conversion, which translates into higher chance quality for Viking. In the last 5 matches Viking have scored 7, conceded 5 and average 2.0 points per game, while Start have 6 goals, 8 conceded and average 1.2 points per game, confirming the visitors’ form advantage.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from seasonal indicators: Start has BTTS 67% and Viking 63%, versus a league average of 55%. In the last 5 matches these figures are 60% for Start and 80% for Viking; over those five Start scored 6 and conceded 8 (averages 1.2 and 1.6), while Viking scored 7 and conceded 5 (averages 1.4 and 1.0). xG analysis shows Start with xG_for 1.89 against Viking xG_against 1.28, and Viking with xG_for 1.73 against Start xG_against 1.10 — both teams generate roughly 1.7–1.9 xG per match, which supports expectation of goals from both sides. Start averages 7.0 shots on target with a 23% conversion rate, Viking 4.75 shots on target with 9% conversion; additionally Viking concedes on average 0.88 goals per match this season, so both sides have realistic scoring chances. Considering seasonal BTTS 67%/63%, last5 60%/80% and xG 1.89 and 1.73, I recommend BTTS "Yes" with a probability of 75% versus 25% for "No".

Start averages 3.83 goals per match with xG 1.89, while Viking averages 1.38 goals with xG 1.73, highlighting the hosts' offensive potential. Using a simple model combining attack and defense strength yields a forecast of 1.59 goals for Start ((1.89+1.28)/2) and 1.41 for Viking ((1.73+1.10)/2), totaling ~3.00 goals, slightly above the league average of 2.98. Historical percentages support the Over: Start has 100% of matches over 2.5 this season, Viking 50%, and in the last 5 fixtures the over 2.5 rate is 80% for Start and 60% for Viking. Additionally both teams have scored in their matches: Start in 67% of matches, Viking in 63%, which increases the probability of multiple goals. Based on this, I recommend the Over side at the 2.5 line as the strongest signal (Over 1.5 ~95%, Over 2.5 ~80%, Over 3.5 ~46%).

I back HT/FT 1/1 — Start leads at the break and wins the match. Start averages 3.83 goals per game versus Viking’s 1.38, and scores 2.0 goals on average by half-time compared to 0.88 (17 HT goals vs 10), indicating the hosts’ offensive dominance in first halves. The hosts led at the break in 5 of 6 matches (83%) and have a 100% home win rate; they also register 7.0 shots on target per game with a 23% conversion rate versus Viking’s 4.75 shots on target and 9% conversion, so they convert chances more efficiently. Despite similar xG (Start 1.89 vs Viking 1.73), the edge in finishing and solid performance in second halves (an average of 2.33 points gained in second halves and 67% of second halves won) reduces the risk of surrendering the lead. For these reasons the most likely scenario is Start leading at half-time and maintaining the victory by full-time.