Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic: match statistics

Stenhousemuir holds a clear home advantage: at home they score an average of 1.71 goals and concede 0.71 per match, while Alloa on the road score 1.29 and concede 1.18. The difference in finishing efficiency is significant — the home side have a conversion rate of 19% and average 4.88 shots on target per game, whereas the visitors only 13% and 4.29 SoT; Alloa register 29% of matches without scoring compared to 12% for Stenhousemuir. xG indicates a slight home edge: Stenhousemuir’s average xG for is 1.29 versus Alloa’s 1.22, and xG against is 1.22 versus 1.34, pointing to better home defending. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 8 goals and average 1.6 points per game, the visitors 5 goals and 1.4 points; additionally the hosts keep clean sheets in 53% of home matches versus 35% for the away side. Considering higher shot efficiency (19% vs 13%), lower average goals conceded (0.71 vs 1.18) and stronger recent form, I assign a 60% probability to a home win, 25% to a draw and 15% to an away win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 41% (Stenhousemuir 41% and Alloa 41%), and in the last 5 matches also 40%/40%, indicating a moderate tendency toward matches without both teams scoring. A strong signal against BTTS is the proportion of clean sheets: Stenhousemuir has clean sheets in 47% of matches, Alloa 35%, while the league average clean sheets is 55%. Under a simple independence assumption, the probability that both teams score (i.e., neither keeps a clean sheet) is approximately (1-0.47)*(1-0.35)=34.5%, which supports a No Bet/No Goal scenario. Additionally, Stenhousemuir concedes on average 0.71 goals per match versus Alloa’s 1.18, records more shots on target (5.06 vs 4.29) and has a higher conversion rate 17% vs 13%, so the home side more often decides the outcome and can keep a clean sheet. Considering seasonal BTTS 41%/41%, last 5 matches 40%/40%, high clean sheet shares 47%/35% and the calculated ~34.5% chance of both teams scoring, I recommend backing No (No Goal) as more likely (65% vs 35%).

I estimate 1.29 expected goals for Stenhousemuir and 1.12 for Alloa, computed as the average of attack xG and opponent defense xG (1.24 and 1.34 for the home side; 1.22 and 1.02 for the away side), yielding a total xG ≈ 2.41. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.41, the probability of over 1.5 goals is about 69% (1−P(≤1)≈0.69), over 2.5 ≈ 43% (P≥3≈0.43), and over 3.5 ≈ 22% (P≥4≈0.22). Season data support this trend: Stenhousemuir records over 1.5 in 71% of home matches, Alloa in 59%, and both teams have very high rates of matches with at least one goal (over 0.5: 88% and 94%). Additionally, the hosts average 5.06 shots on target with a conversion rate of 17%, versus 4.29 and 13% for Alloa, reinforcing the home side’s attacking potential; consequently the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (69% chance), while Over 2.5 and 3.5 are less likely (43% and 22%).

Stenhousemuir have superior seasonal numbers: on average 1.59 goals per match versus Alloa’s 1.29, and 1.88 points per match with a 53% home win rate compared to Alloa’s 1.35 points and 41% wins, which favors the home side for the full-time result. At half-time the hosts led in 8 matches (47% of their games), scoring on average 0.65 goals in the first half and conceding only 0.18, with a half-time clean sheet in 82% of their matches — a strong signal for a lead at the break. In the second half Stenhousemuir score 0.94 on average and concede 0.53, while Alloa concede 0.71 on average after the break; additionally the hosts’ xG of 1.24 versus Alloa’s 1.22 and the lower xG against (1.02 vs 1.34) indicate better home defence. Based on these figures the most likely scenario is Stenhousemuir leading at half-time and the home side winning the match, therefore I tip 1/1 as the primary signal.