Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic: match statistics

Stevenage are 13th, while Wigan Athletic sit 24th. In their last five matches, the hosts have picked up 10 points compared with the visitors’ 7. Stevenage have scored 13 goals and conceded 4 during that period, while Wigan have scored 6 and conceded 8. At home, the hosts average 1.67 goals per match, whereas Wigan score just 0.67 away from home and have failed to find the net in 67% of those matches. The visitors do, however, create higher-quality chances, recording an away xG of 1.68 compared with Stevenage’s home xG of 1.21, but they convert just 4% of their shots, against 16% for the hosts. Wigan are yet to win away from home, so despite the threat suggested by their xG, a Stevenage victory is the more likely outcome.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is that Stevenage have failed to score in 75% of their home matches, while Wigan have failed to score in 67% of their away fixtures. BTTS occurred in just 25% and 33% of those matches respectively, well below the league average of 60%. However, Stevenage’s recent form points to a possible goal from the hosts: they have scored 2.6 goals per match across their last five appearances, while Wigan have conceded 1.6 per game over that period. The visitors average just 0.67 goals away from home, and Stevenage have conceded an average of 0.8 in their last five matches, so Wigan are at greater risk of failing to score. Although the visitors’ away xG stands at 1.68, indicating attacking potential, their actual scoring record and the low rate of matches in which both teams score support a BTTS - No pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

In their last 5 matches, Stevenage scored an average of 2.6 goals and conceded 0.8, while Wigan scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6, producing totals of 3.4 and 2.8 goals per match, respectively. At least three goals were scored in 60% of matches for both teams, although the Over 1.5 goals line landed more often in Stevenage’s home matches than in Wigan’s away games: 75% versus 33%. Their attacking potential is supported by average xG figures of 1.39 for Stevenage at home and 1.68 for Wigan away, but their season scoring averages of 0.75 and 0.67 goals, respectively, temper confidence in higher lines. With a forecast of 2.95 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick: its estimated probability of 79% is well above the 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Wigan failed to score in the first half in all 3 matches considered and went into the break level in 2 of them. Stevenage were also level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, so the data strongly supports a scenario with no early breakthrough. The home side could gain the upper hand after the break: they have scored an average of 1.4 goals in second halves across their last 5 matches, while Wigan have conceded an average of 1.0 in that period. Stevenage’s recent form also points to a full-time win, with 3 wins in 5 matches and an average of 2.6 goals scored, compared with Wigan’s 2 wins and 1.2 goals. Although both teams’ season-long figures are weaker, the combination of frequent half-time draws and the hosts’ superior recent scoring form points to X/1.