Stockport County vs Stevenage: match statistics

Stockport (3rd) have scored 72 goals this season versus 49 for Stevenage (6th), clearly indicating the hosts’ offensive superiority. At home Stockport average 1.65 goals and have an xG of 1.68 with 14.65 shots and 5.0 on target per game, while Stevenage away record is only 0.96 goals and xG 1.09 with 9.3 shots and 3.13 on target. Defensively Stockport concede 1.13 goals per home game versus 1.43 conceded by Stevenage on the road, and the home goal difference is +12 compared to -11 for the visitors away. Additionally, Stevenage fail to score in 35% of away matches, whereas Stockport are goalless at home in only 13% of games; in the last 5 matches Stockport have 3 wins and average 1.8 points per game, Stevenage have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1.6 points. Considering the higher xG (1.68 vs 1.09), greater shot volume and better home metrics, I favour a home win.

Stockport concede only 0.58 goals per home game on average and keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches, while Stevenage score 0.96 goals away on average and have a seasonal BTTS rate of 52% on the road. Over the season Stockport record BTTS in 38% of matches with 72 goals for and 58 against, whereas Stevenage have 49 goals for and 47 against, indicating greater defensive stability from the hosts. Stockport produce xG 1.29 at home with xG against 0.95, while Stevenage have xG for 1.09 away — this suggests limited expected goal output from Stevenage against Stockport’s defense. In the last 5 matches Stockport average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded (BTTS 60%), and Stevenage average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded (BTTS 40%), yielding a mixed but defensive signal favoring the hosts. Considering Stockport’s 54% clean sheets and very low 0.58 goals conceded per game versus Stevenage’s weaker away scoring of 0.96, I recommend a 'No' (BTTS - No) with a probability of 65%.

I estimate total goals at approximately 2.36 (1.34 for Stockport, 1.02 for Stevenage), calculated as the average of offensive and defensive xG (Stockport xG_for 1.29 vs Stevenage xG_against 1.38; Stevenage xG_for 1.09 vs Stockport xG_against 0.95). Stockport at home score 1.13 and concede 0.58 seasonally, and in the last 5 matches increased xG_for to 1.71 and averaged 1.6 goals, which raises their offensive pressure. Stevenage away score 0.96 and concede 1.43 per match seasonally, and their BTTS is 52% (Stockport BTTS 38%), which favors goals from both sides. With expected lambda ≈2.36 the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 68%, Over 2.5 is ~42% and Over 3.5 only ~21%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is the over at the 1.5 line.

First-half statistics indicate a high probability of a draw at the break: Stockport were level at HT in 17 matches (71%), and Stevenage at HT in 52% of games, suggesting a high incidence of halftime draws. At the same time, the second half favors the home side — Stockport average 0.63 goals scored after the break and concede only 0.29, while Stevenage concede an average of 0.96 goals after halftime; in the last 5 matches the home team won the second half in 80% of cases. Over full matches Stockport have a clear edge: 2.04 points per home game and a 58% win rate, with an average of 1.13 goals scored and an xG of 1.29, whereas Stevenage average 1.13 points away, a 30% win rate, xG 1.09 and concede 1.43 goals on average. In practice this means matches most often start level at HT and then the home side breaks through in the second half, so the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at the break and Stockport winning after 90 minutes (X/1) appears most likely.