Stoke City vs Swansea City: match statistics

Stoke City are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Swansea City have lost 2 of their last 5 games. The hosts have scored 6 goals in this period, one more than their opponents, but most importantly, they have conceded just 2 goals compared with Swansea’s 5. Stoke’s record over the last five matches gives them an average of 2.2 points per game, clearly more than Swansea’s 1.4 points. The two teams occupy adjacent positions in the lower part of the table, 18th and 19th, but Stoke’s current defensive stability should tip the balance in the hosts’ favour. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Stoke’s two stalemates in their last five appearances, but a narrow home win is the more likely scenario.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 20% of Swansea’s last 5 matches and 40% of Stoke’s. Stoke conceded just 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match, while remaining unbeaten in 5 games and recording three wins. Swansea scores only 1.0 goal per match on average, with an average xG of 0.93, which limits the likelihood of breaking through the hosts’ solid defence. The home side are capable of scoring, averaging 1.2 goals and an xG of 1.23 per match, but the most likely scenario remains that at least one team will fail to score.

Stoke’s last five matches produced an average of just 1.6 goals, with the team scoring 6 and conceding only 2. Over the same period, Swansea recorded 5 goals scored and 5 conceded, resulting in an average of 2.0 goals per match. The 2.5-goal line was not surpassed in any of Stoke’s five most recent matches, while this occurred only once for Swansea, representing 20% of their games. The attacking potential of both sides also does not point to an open game: average xG stands at 1.23 for the hosts and 0.93 for the visitors, with xG conceded at 0.97 and 0.82 respectively. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as Stoke’s current defensive form and the low share of matches featuring three goals limit the risk of a high-scoring game.

Stoke have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 points per game, while Swansea have lost 40% of their fixtures. The hosts tend to start matches very cautiously: they have scored just 0.2 goals per game before half-time, been level at the break in 60% of cases, and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their matches. After the interval, Stoke clearly improve, averaging 1.0 goal and winning the second half in 80% of their last five matches. Swansea have scored just 0.2 goals after half-time, failing to find the net in 80% of those second halves. Therefore, the most logical HT/FT selection is a draw at half-time followed by Stoke capitalising on their second-half advantage to win the match: X/1.