Südtirol vs Bari 1908: match statistics

Both teams have 38 goals this season, but form over the last 5 matches diverges: Südtirol has scored only 2 goals and recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, while Bari has 5 goals with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses; average points per game in the last 5 are 0.4 for the home side and 1.4 for the visitors. Seasonally the hosts create better chances – Südtirol’s average xG is 1.58 versus Bari’s 1.00, average shots 13.84 vs 9.42, and shot conversion rates around 7% vs 8%. Additionally, at home Südtirol concedes on average 1.11 goals, while Bari concedes 1.84 on the road, which on a seasonal basis favors the hosts. However, the hosts’ recent defensive form is worrying: 11 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game) versus 7 for Bari (1.4 per game), which erodes the xG advantage and increases the visitors’ chance of taking a point. With 37% home draws for the hosts and high shares of scoreless-match involvement (42% for Südtirol and 47% for Bari) I expect a low-scoring game with a draw as the most likely outcome.

Based on seasonal data the signals are moderately in favor of BTTS - Yes: Südtirol have BTTS in 55% of matches, Bari 47%, with the league average at 54%. Both teams are prone to conceding — Südtirol concede 1.25 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in only 25% of matches (conceding in 75%), Bari concede 1.84 goals per game and have 16% clean sheets (84% of matches with a goal conceded). Offsetting this is Bari's low offensive efficiency: just 0.79 goals per game and only 20% BTTS in the last 5 matches, which reduces the likelihood that the visitors will score. However, Südtirol generate 1.22 xG per game (last 5 matches xG 1.36) and average 3.75 on-target shots per game, while scoring only 0.4 goals per game in the last five — indicating poor finishing and potential regression to the mean. Considering seasonal BTTS 55/47, the league average 54%, and the low clean sheet percentages, I assign BTTS 62% vs 38% and recommend a

The xG-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Südtirol and 1.34 for Bari (total ~2.91), calculated from home attack xG 1.22 vs Bari defense xG 1.91 and Bari attack xG 1.00 vs Südtirol defense xG 1.68. Season stats show Südtirol records over 1.5 in 75% of home matches and Bari in 84% of away matches; additionally over 0.5 occurs in 90% and 89% of their games respectively, while BTTS stands at 55% and 47%. The aggregate xG of 2.91 and season over2.5 rates (50% for the home side and 53% for the visitors) imply roughly a 56% probability for Over 2.5, whereas season over3.5 rates (15% and 26%) and lower finishing rates indicate about a ~28% chance for Over 3.5. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5) — both the xG model and the high seasonal percentages for over1.5 (75% vs 84%) and over0.5 (90% vs 89%) clearly point to at least two goals in the match.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: Südtirol draws at the break in 60% of matches, Bari in 63%, giving roughly a 61% chance of an HT draw. After the break, however, the advantage shifts to the home side — Südtirol scores an average of 0.65 goals after the break and earns 1.5 points in the second half, whereas Bari averages only 0.26 goals and 0.63 points after the break. This is supported by attacking data: the hosts generate 1.22 xG at home versus the visitors’ 1.00, average 3.75 shots on target compared to Bari’s 2.32, and have better conversion (11% vs 8%), while the visitors concede more xG against them (1.91 vs 1.68). For these reasons the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a home victory at full-time (X/1), which is why I assigned this scenario the highest single forecast.