Südtirol vs Modena: match statistics

Südtirol remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Modena have lost 3 of their last five games. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far, conceding no goals and averaging 1.5 goals scored. Modena also boast strong away figures — averaging 2.5 goals, 11.5 shots and 3.5 shots on target per match — but their average xG stands at just 1.16, suggesting that such a high level of finishing may be difficult to sustain. Südtirol create fewer high-quality chances, with an average xG of 0.90, but are highly efficient in front of goal and have kept two consecutive clean sheets at home. Home advantage and a more stable results trend slightly favour a narrow Südtirol win, although Modena’s attacking potential clearly increases the risk of a draw.

BTTS - Yes is slightly preferred, as Südtirol have averaged 1.2 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while Modena have averaged 1.4, conceding 0.6 and 1.2 goals per game respectively. Modena have particularly strong away figures: they score an average of 2.5 goals, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 0% of such appearances. Südtirol have failed to score in their only home match so far, but created as much as 4.01 xG, registering 43 shots and 10 shots on target, which points more to a finishing problem than a lack of chances. The visitors allow opponents an average of 1.21 xG away from home, while over their last five matches their defence conceded 1.35 xG. However, both teams have recorded BTTS in 40% of their last five matches, so the edge for the Goal/Goal scenario is limited, though supported by the quality of Südtirol’s attacking chances and Modena’s finishing efficiency.

Südtirol’s last five matches produced a total of 1.8 goals per game, with the team scoring 6 and conceding just 3. Modena play slightly more openly, averaging 2.6 goals across their last five outings after scoring 7 and conceding 6, but only 60% of those matches went Over 2.5 goals. The estimated xG points to an advantage for the visitors in chance creation, 1.63 compared with the hosts’ 1.11; however, Südtirol have recently conceded just 0.6 goals per game. The projected total of 2.55 goals primarily suggests a scoreline in the 1–3 goal range, while the Under 3.5 line is further supported by the fact that neither team has recorded a match with at least 4 goals in the available data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Südtirol win, corresponding to the HT/FT pick X/1. The hosts have been level at the break in each of their last five matches, scoring and conceding just 0.2 goals on average in the first half. Modena have been less stable before the break: in their last five matches, they led 40% of the time, but also went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of cases, with an average of 0.6 goals conceded before the interval. After the break, Südtirol have averaged 1.0 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded across their last five appearances, while Modena have recorded averages of 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. The hosts’ late-match advantage is further supported by their unbeaten form over five matches, comprising three draws and two wins, compared with Modena’s three defeats in the same period.