Sumqayıt vs Qarabağ: match statistics

Qarabağ is the clear favorite in this matchup. Away, Qarabağ averages 2.0 goals per game (67 this season) and concedes only 0.93 goals, while Sumqayıt at home score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals. The visitors average 15.13 shots with 5.73 on target per game compared to the hosts' 9.8 shots and 3.4 on target, which combined with a higher xG 1.91 vs 1.32 (difference +0.59) indicates superior quality of Qarabağ’s attacking chances. Qarabağ also has a significantly better season record (20 wins and a goal difference of 67-24) than Sumqayıt (11 wins, 39-46) and a lower percentage of away matches without scoring 13% vs 27% for the hosts. Form over the last five matches shows the visitors slightly ahead on points: Qarabağ average 2.0 points per game versus Sumqayıt’s 1.8, so considering their advantage in chance creation, possession (64% vs 52%) and better defensive metrics, I expect a Qarabağ win.

I back BTTS - Yes (72%) because Qarabağ has a seasonal BTTS share of 67% and 80% in the last 5 matches, a strong signal that the away side consistently contributes goals. Sumqayıt at home has a low seasonal BTTS rate of 24% and a high clean sheet expected rate of 59%, which historically lowers the probability, but in the last 5 games their BTTS rate rose to 60% and the team conceded on average 1.0 goals (vs. seasonal average 0.59). xG supports a goals outlook: Sumqayıt has xG_for 2.08 against the xG Qarabağ typically concedes 1.06, while Qarabağ has xG_for 1.91 against the xG Sumqayıt typically concedes 0.88 — both teams therefore generate expected chances to score. Shot stats (16.18 and 6.18 shots on target for the home side vs. 15.13 and 5.73 for the visitors) and the fact that over the last 5 matches the teams averaged scoring 1.4 and 2.4 goals while conceding 1.0 each reinforce an exchange-of-goals scenario. Considering the league baseline BTTS 45% and the dominant signal from the last 5 matches and xG, I assign 72% to 'Yes' and 28% to 'No'.

Statistics indicate a high-scoring game: the season rate of matches over 1.5 is 71% for Sumqayıt and 80% for Qarabağ, and average xG are 2.08 (Sumqayıt) and 1.91 (Qarabağ), translating to expected 1.57 goals for the home side and 1.40 for the away side (total 2.97). Additionally, both teams produce many shots (16.18 and 15.13) and shots on target (6.18 and 5.73) with a conversion rate of 13%, which increases the likelihood of goals, and Qarabağ has scored 67 goals this season versus Sumqayıt’s 39. Looking at form, in the last 5 matches Sumqayıt averaged 1.4 goals and Qarabağ 2.4, and the over 2.5 rate in the last 5 is 60% and 80% respectively, pushing the probability of Over 2.5 to about 65%. At the same time, season rates for Over 3.5 are low (24% Sumqayıt, 27% Qarabağ), so Over 3.5 has a lower probability (~28%), and the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (approx. 88%), hence the recommendation to play Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely half-time signal is a draw: hosts were level at the break in 41% of matches, visitors in 40%, and Sumqayıt kept a clean sheet at half-time in as many as 76% of games, indicating a low number of first-half goals. After the break the hosts’ advantage increases — Sumqayıt posts an average xG of 2.08 versus Qarabağ’s 1.91, registers more shots on target (6.18 vs 5.73) and concedes less xG (0.88 vs 1.06), suggesting superior quality in both attack and defense. Second-half statistics confirm this: the hosts score an average of 1.41 goals after the break compared to 1.07 for the visitors and concede 0.35 goals in the second half versus the opponent’s 0.47, and Sumqayıt have scored 12 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to Qarabağ’s 7, meaning they often decide matches late. Considering the 41–40% half-time draws and the clear home advantage in the second half, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Sumqayıt win at full-time (X/1), which I assign the highest probability of 30%.