Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: match statistics
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Rīgas FS in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 29 May 2026. Venue: Olaines stadions. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Super Nova: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Rīgas FS: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.13 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Rīgas FS scores 2.40 and concedes 0.67. League average: 3.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 60%, Rīgas FS 33%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 53%, Rīgas FS 53%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Rīgas FS has higher xG: 2.05 vs 1.11. Super Nova: 8.5 shots per match, Rīgas FS: 17.4.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.53. Rīgas FS: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.27.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 76-90+ (5 goals). Rīgas FS: 16-30 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.05 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-5. Average goals 3.40, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rīgas FS is the clear favorite: across the season they have 13 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with a goal difference of 36–10, while Super Nova have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses with a 17–21 record. In the last 5 matches the visitors have won 5 of 5, scoring 16 and conceding only 1 (avg. 3.2–0.2 per match), whereas the hosts are 2–1–2 with 6 scored and 6 conceded (1.2–1.2). Rīgas FS generates substantially more chances: on the road they average 18.29 shots and 6.57 on target per match with xG 2.17, versus Super Nova’s 8.67 shots and 3.17 on target and xG 1.08, translating to roughly double the number of high-quality opportunities. Defensively the gap is equally pronounced — Super Nova concedes 1.83 goals at home on average and have no clean sheets, while Rīgas FS concede 0.57 away and keep a clean sheet in 71% of matches. Considering Rīgas FS’s 100% away win rate and an average of 3 points per match in the last 5 versus Super Nova’s 1.4 points per match, the most likely outcome is an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates for both teams are low: Super Nova 38% and Rīgas FS 29%, while the league average BTTS is 60%, which argues against a Goal/Goal outcome. Rīgas FS has kept a clean sheet in 71% of matches this season and conceded a total of 1 goal in the last 5 fixtures (0.2 per game), while Super Nova has 50% clean sheets and conceded 1.2 goals on average in the last 5. Both teams do create chances: seasonal xG is 1.94 for Super Nova and 2.17 for Rīgas, with shot averages 16.63 vs 18.29 and shots on target 6.0 vs 6.57. Super Nova has higher finishing efficiency (17% vs 10%), increasing their chance to score, but the dominant clean sheet signal from Rīgas (71%) and the low seasonal BTTS (38% and 29%) favor the No Goal scenario; therefore I assess 35% for BTTS - Yes and 65% for No Goal and recommend selecting "no".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined expected goals total is about 2.87: Super Nova ~1.35 goals (attacking xG 1.94 vs Rīgas FS defensive xG 0.75 -> average 1.35) and Rīgas FS ~1.52 goals (attacking xG 2.17 vs Super Nova defensive xG 0.87 -> average 1.52). A Poisson model with λ=2.87 yields Over 1.5 ≈78%, Over 2.5 ≈55% and Over 3.5 ≈32%, which aligns with seasonal signals — Super Nova has 88% of matches over 1.5 goals, and the league averages 3.07 goals per match. Rīgas FS, however, have a strong defense (71% clean sheets this season and only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches), which lowers the BTTS chance (seasonal BTTS: Super Nova 38%, Rīgas 29%) and reduces the probability of very high scores. On the other hand Super Nova are very efficient in finishing (conversion 17% vs 10% for Rīgas) and both teams generate plenty of shots (avg 16.63 and 18.29), while Rīgas have scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 3.2), increasing the risk of multiple goals. Consequently the strongest selection is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at the 1.5 line), because combined λ=2.87 and the high seasonal frequency of matches above 1.5 offer the best probability-to-risk ratio.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I tip 2/2: Rīgas FS will lead at the break and win the match. Supporting evidence is the visitors’ form — Rīgas FS have won all 5 of their last 5 matches (5/5, 100%) and were leading at half-time in each of those 5 games (5/5). The visitors also have higher xG (2.17 versus 1.94 for the hosts) and more average shots (18.29 vs 16.63) and shots on target (6.57 vs 6.00), indicating they create more chances. Half-time statistics are similar (average goals by half-time 1.14 for the visitors vs 1.13 for the hosts), but Rīgas FS have led at the break in 71% of their season matches and kept a half-time clean sheet in 86% of games, which strengthens the HT lead scenario. Super Nova, however, have a strong second half — the hosts score on average 1.75 goals after the break and score at least once after half-time in 88% of matches, so 2/X and X/2 turnarounds are possible, yet the strongest signal is 2/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rīgas FS is 114% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Super Nova · 3 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rīgas FS is 112% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Super Nova · 2.4 goals / match - Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS is 109% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - Super Nova · 0.67 goals / match - Rīgas FS
Super Nova scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Rīgas FS keeps a clean sheet in 60% (9 of 15 matches).
Rīgas FS scores in 93% of matches (14 of 15 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Rīgas FS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rīgas FS is 72% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Super Nova · 2.07 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Rīgas FS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 87%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +9 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.53 | 3.05 | • 3.07 |
| Both teams scored | • 60% | 59% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | • 20% | 21% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 86% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Super Nova 0 - 0 - 5 Rīgas FS. Average goals 3.40, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:2 Rīgas FS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Rīgas FS?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 0, Rīgas FS won 5 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Super Nova score 1.13 goals per game on average and Rīgas FS 2.40. The Virsliga average is 3.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Super Nova's matches and 33% of Rīgas FS's.
What form are Super Nova and Rīgas FS in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Rīgas FS 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.