Supra du Québec vs Forge FC: match statistics

Forge FC top the table with 13 wins from 18 matches, while Supra du Québec have won just 5 games and sit in 6th place. The visitors are clearly more effective away from home, averaging 1.78 goals from an xG of 1.78, compared with the hosts’ 1.11 goals despite their xG of 1.64. Forge’s defense concedes just 0.89 goals per away game and keeps a clean sheet in 33% of matches, while Supra have failed to keep a single clean sheet at home and concede an average of 1.67 goals. The hosts have failed to win any of their last five matches, recording 3 draws and 2 defeats, whereas Forge have collected 7 points during that period. The visitors’ defensive advantage, superior shots on target (5.33 versus 4.33), and better finishing efficiency (12% versus 7%) point to a Forge victory.

The case for goals at both ends is strengthened by Supra du Québec’s current form: in their last 5 matches, the team averaged 1.6 goals scored, conceded 2.0, and BTTS landed in all 5 games. Forge FC should find a way to score, as they average 1.78 goals per game this season, generate 1.78 xG, and register 5.33 shots on target per match, while the hosts have conceded 10 goals in their last five league fixtures. The hosts also have genuine attacking arguments against Forge’s defence: their average xG is 1.56, while opponents have kept a clean sheet in only 33% of matches and allow an average of 1.26 xG. Supra’s season profile is more cautious, with BTTS occurring in only 22% of their matches, but their current defensive numbers clearly weaken that argument. With the league BTTS average standing at 64%, the more likely scenario is that both teams score at least one goal.

The model expects 2.72 goals, as the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.56, while Forge creates chances worth an average of 1.78 xG, whereas Supra concedes only 0.85 xG per match. The hosts’ defence is particularly solid: they concede an average of 0.56 goals and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches. Historically, Supra’s matches have finished below 3.5 goals in 78% of cases, while Forge’s rate is also high at 67%. Supra’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 3.6 goals, with 60% of games going Over 2.5, but this does not change the fact that the four-goal threshold remains high. The strongest edge therefore lies with Under 3.5 goals, supported by the combination of the hosts’ low average goals conceded and both teams’ seasonal trends.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Forge FC win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches. Forge, however, are in clearly better current form: they average 1.4 points per match across their last five fixtures, while Supra have not won any of them and average just 0.6 points. The visitors have also created more over the course of the season, with an average xG of 1.78 compared with the hosts’ 1.56, while their average of 5.33 shots on target exceeds Supra’s 4.56. After the break, Forge score an average of 1.11 goals, whereas the hosts have conceded as many as 1.4 goals per match in the second half across their last five games. In addition, Forge have not been trailing at half-time in any match this season, while Supra have led at the break in only 11% of their fixtures, reinforcing the scenario of a cautious start followed by the visitors gaining the upper hand late on.