Supra du Québec vs HFX Wanderers FC: match statistics

Supra du Québec have a clear advantage in chance creation at home: their average xG stands at 1.57, compared with just 0.96 for HFX Wanderers away from home, while the hosts average 14.8 shots per match versus 8.27 for their opponents. The Québec side also enjoy more possession at their own stadium (53% to 44%) and lose 50% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have suffered defeat in as many as 64% of their away games. HFX’s away defence concedes an average of 1.82 goals and 1.82 xG, which should favour the hosts despite their own scoring rate of just 1.1 goals per home match. Both teams are in poor form, but HFX have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 13 goals during that run, while Supra have collected 5 points over the same period. A closely contested match is expected, with the hosts holding the edge as they should make better use of home advantage and their higher volume of chances created.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS has occurred in 70% of Supra du Québec matches this season and 64% of HFX Wanderers fixtures, exactly matching or exceeding the league average of 64%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of cases, while HFX averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.6. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per match, while the visitors allow opponents to score 1.82 goals and have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of their matches. HFX has a lower seasonal xG of 0.96, but Supra’s defence concedes an average of 1.38 xG, and the hosts conceded in 70% of matches, strengthening the visitors’ chances of scoring. Therefore, the most likely scenario is one in which neither side finishes the match without scoring.

Supra du Québec score an average of 1.50 goals per match, while HFX Wanderers concede 1.82, clearly supporting at least two goals for the hosts or in the match overall. In their last five matches, the visitors scored 1.80 goals but also allowed 2.60 per game, giving their fixtures elevated scoring potential. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 70% of Supra du Québec matches and 73% of HFX matches, while both teams scored in 70% and 64% of their respective appearances. The estimated 2.82 goals is close to the league average of 2.95, so Over 1.5 remains the strongest and safest signal, although Over 2.5 also has moderate support.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Supra du Québec win, as HFX Wanderers were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 40% for the hosts. Both teams tend to play cautiously in the first half: the hosts average 0.60 goals and the visitors 0.45, while the average number of goals before half-time is 1.30 and 1.09, respectively. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Supra, who won the second half in 40% of their matches, while HFX lost it in 45%. The hosts also have a clearly stronger overall season record, averaging 1.50 goals and 1.20 points per match, compared with 1.27 goals and 0.73 points for their opponents. HFX’s defensive weakness, conceding an average of 1.82 goals—and as many as 2.60 in their last five matches—increases the likelihood of the hosts completing the turnaround after a closely contested opening period.