Supra du Québec vs Vancouver FC: match statistics

Supra du Québec hold a slight home advantage, winning 33% of their matches on home soil, while Vancouver FC win 25% of their away games. The hosts create chances at home with an average xG of 1.67, clearly higher than the visitors’ 1.23 away from home, and average 4.67 shots on target compared with Vancouver’s 3.75. Although Vancouver have conceded fewer goals over the season, 33 compared with 44, they average 1.50 goals conceded per away match, slightly more than Supra’s 1.42 at home. Neither side has a clear edge in recent form: the hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have won just 1 but drawn three times. Home advantage and the higher quality of chances created favour Supra, though their 3 defeats in the last 5 matches warrant caution.

The case for both teams to score is supported by the hosts averaging 1.62 goals, while the visitors concede 1.50; Vancouver, in turn, score 1.17 goals, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.15. Supra have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of matches, and Vancouver in 8%, so neither defence provides strong grounds for ruling out an opposition goal. In each of their last five matches, the visitors have both scored and conceded, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Caution is warranted, however, as Vancouver have failed to score in 42% of matches, and neither side scored in the last five games involving the hosts. Despite these reservations, the season-long BTTS rates of 62% for Supra and 50% for Vancouver give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes.

Supra du Québec score an average of 1.62 goals, while Vancouver FC concede 1.50, giving the home side a solid foundation to find the net. The visitors average 1.17 goals scored, and the hosts concede 1.15; moreover, they keep a clean sheet in only 15% of their matches. The 1.5-goal line has been beaten in 77% of the hosts’ matches and 58% of the visitors’ games, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. The higher line is less convincing: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% and 42% of their matches, respectively, so the 2.67-goal forecast offers no clear edge on either side of this market.

Supra du Québec were level at half-time in 46% of their matches, compared with 33% for Vancouver FC, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome. Although the hosts score an average of 0.92 goals before the break, the visitors concede just 0.42 in that period, making an early Supra lead difficult to predict. After the break, the advantage shifts to the hosts: they score an average of 0.69 goals, while Vancouver concede 1.08. Over the season as a whole, Supra won 46% of their matches, while Vancouver lost 58%, strengthening the case for a home win at full-time. Confidence in the prediction is tempered by recent form: Supra were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Vancouver averaged 1.0 goal after the break.