Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers: match statistics
Swindon Town presents decidedly better form and statistics at their own stadium. The hosts win 59% of home matches, scoring an average of 1.76 goals while conceding just 1.06, giving them a positive goal difference of +12 at home. Bristol Rovers copes very poorly on away trips with 69% losses, scoring on average only 0.88 goals while conceding 1.88 per match, which translates to a dramatic balance of -16. The form of both teams in the last five matches also speaks for the hosts (1.8 PPG vs 1.2 PPG), and Swindon has not lost in home clashes for several rounds. Taking all parameters into account, especially Swindon's efficiency at home and Bristol Rovers' problems away, a decisive victory for the hosts is the most probable scenario.
Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Swindon Town played Bristol Rovers in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Swindon Town: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Bristol Rovers: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Swindon Town scores 1.65 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Bristol Rovers scores 0.97 and concedes 1.70. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Swindon Town 56%, Bristol Rovers 42%. Over 2.5: Swindon Town 65%, Bristol Rovers 55%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Swindon Town has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.30. Swindon Town: 12.5 shots per match, Bristol Rovers: 11.6.
Match halves
Swindon Town: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.82. Bristol Rovers: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
Swindon Town: 76-90+ (13 goals). Bristol Rovers: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Swindon Town presents decidedly better form and statistics at their own stadium. The hosts win 59% of home matches, scoring an average of 1.76 goals while conceding just 1.06, giving them a positive goal difference of +12 at home. Bristol Rovers copes very poorly on away trips with 69% losses, scoring on average only 0.88 goals while conceding 1.88 per match, which translates to a dramatic balance of -16. The form of both teams in the last five matches also speaks for the hosts (1.8 PPG vs 1.2 PPG), and Swindon has not lost in home clashes for several rounds. Taking all parameters into account, especially Swindon's efficiency at home and Bristol Rovers' problems away, a decisive victory for the hosts is the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Swindon Town | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Swindon Town is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Swindon Town · 1.2 pts / match - Bristol Rovers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Swindon Town is 70% better for: goals scored per match.
1.65 goals / match - Swindon Town · 0.97 goals / match - Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town is 44% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Swindon Town · 1.7 goals / match - Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town scores in 85% of matches (29 of 34 matches), while Bristol Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
Bristol Rovers scores in 58% of matches (19 of 33 matches), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 32% (11 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Swindon Town
Over / Under - Bristol Rovers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Swindon Town is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Swindon Town · 1.12 pts / match - Bristol Rovers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Bristol Rovers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -16 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Swindon Town | Liga | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.82 | 2.57 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 53% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 47% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 26% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Swindon Town 1 - 0 - 0 Bristol Rovers. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
The EFL League Two match finished Swindon Town 1:1 Bristol Rovers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Swindon Town score 1.65 goals per game on average and Bristol Rovers 0.97. The EFL League Two average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Swindon Town's matches and 42% of Bristol Rovers's.
What form are Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers in?
Over the last 5 games Swindon Town have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Bristol Rovers 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.