Swindon Town vs Salford City: match statistics
The match shapes up to be a very even contest between two top-table teams. Swindon Town presents solid home form with 58% wins at home and a +7 goal difference, though their last five home fixtures show some fluctuations in form. Salford City is in phenomenal shape, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 10 goals in that period, yielding 2.6 points per match. A key factor is the visitors' advantage in Expected Goals (xG 1.43 vs 1.34), suggesting higher attacking efficiency on the road. Considering the close possession stats (both teams at 51%), similar average shots per match, and the fact that Salford has a 50% away win rate with only 8% draws, I expect a fierce encounter with a slight edge for the hosts, which may end in a share of the points.
Swindon Town vs Salford City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Swindon Town played Salford City in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Swindon Town: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Salford City: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Swindon Town scores 1.63 and concedes 1.08 goals per match. Salford City scores 1.46 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Swindon Town 50%, Salford City 58%. Over 2.5: Swindon Town 58%, Salford City 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Salford City has higher xG: 1.70 vs 1.42. Swindon Town: 12.6 shots per match, Salford City: 14.7.
Match halves
Swindon Town: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.71. Salford City: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Swindon Town: 0-15 (9 goals). Salford City: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match shapes up to be a very even contest between two top-table teams. Swindon Town presents solid home form with 58% wins at home and a +7 goal difference, though their last five home fixtures show some fluctuations in form. Salford City is in phenomenal shape, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 10 goals in that period, yielding 2.6 points per match. A key factor is the visitors' advantage in Expected Goals (xG 1.43 vs 1.34), suggesting higher attacking efficiency on the road. Considering the close possession stats (both teams at 51%), similar average shots per match, and the fact that Salford has a 50% away win rate with only 8% draws, I expect a fierce encounter with a slight edge for the hosts, which may end in a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Swindon Town | Salford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Salford City is 8% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Swindon Town · 2.6 pts / match - Salford City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Swindon Town is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Swindon Town · 1.46 goals / match - Salford City
Swindon Town is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.08 goals / match - Swindon Town · 1.29 goals / match - Salford City
Swindon Town scores in 79% of matches (19 of 24 matches), while Salford City keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
Salford City scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Swindon Town keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Swindon Town
Over / Under - Salford City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Swindon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Salford City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Swindon Town
Salford City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Swindon Town | Liga | Salford City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.61 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 26% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 70% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 77% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Swindon Town 0 - 0 - 1 Salford City. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Swindon Town vs Salford City?
The EFL League Two match finished Swindon Town 2:3 Salford City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Swindon Town score 1.63 goals per game on average and Salford City 1.46. The EFL League Two average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Swindon Town's matches and 58% of Salford City's.
What form are Swindon Town and Salford City in?
Over the last 5 games Swindon Town have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Salford City 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Swindon Town vs Salford City?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.