Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics
Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tallinna FC Flora played Harju Jalgpallikool in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 5:0.
Current form
Tallinna FC Flora: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Harju Jalgpallikool: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tallinna FC Flora scores 1.78 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Harju Jalgpallikool scores 1.56 and concedes 1.33. League average: 3.29 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tallinna FC Flora 33%, Harju Jalgpallikool 56%. Over 2.5: Tallinna FC Flora 67%, Harju Jalgpallikool 56%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Tallinna FC Flora has higher xG: 1.99 vs 1.49. Tallinna FC Flora: 16.0 shots per match, Harju Jalgpallikool: 11.9.
Match halves
Tallinna FC Flora: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.22. Harju Jalgpallikool: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Tallinna FC Flora: 61-75 (6 goals). Harju Jalgpallikool: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.29 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-1. Average goals 3.40, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tallinna FC Flora has a clear defensive edge and strong home form: at home they average 2.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match, and in their last five league games they scored 12 goals and won 4 of 5. Visitors Harju Jalgpallikool score 2.0 goals on average away but concede 1.25 per match; in their last 5 games they have 7 goals with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. In terms of chance quality the hosts also dominate: Flora’s average xG is 2.09 versus 1.78 for Harju, and average shots on target per match are 5.6 for the hosts vs 4.0 for the visitors, indicating more high-quality chances for Flora. Additionally, Flora keep a clean sheet in 60% of home matches compared to 25% clean sheets for the visitors on the road, and their shot-to-goal conversion rate is 15% vs 13% — this confirms the hosts’ advantage. Therefore I expect a Tallinna FC Flora win, although Harju always score away (percentage of games without scoring 0%), so both teams to score is possible.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - Yes at approximately 70%, driven primarily by Harju Jalgpallikool’s very high BTTS rate: 75% season and 60% in last 5, versus league BTTS 57%. Tallinna FC Flora’s season BTTS is only 40% and they have 40% clean sheets, which weakens the signal, but in their last 5 matches they average 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5) and have a recent xG_for of 1.99, so they can score. Harju averages 2.0 goals seasonally with xG_for 1.78, and with 15.5 shots per match versus Flora’s 9.0 and an equal conversion rate of 13% this indicates a realistic scoring potential. Defensively Flora has season xG_against 2.19 and concedes 1.4 goals per match, while Harju concedes 1.25 seasonally and 1.6 in the last 5, which increases the risk of goals from both sides; therefore the stronger signal favors BTTS = Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.57 for Tallinna FC Flora and 1.99 for Harju Jalgpallikool, total 3.56. I calculated these as the average of seasonal xG: Flora xG for 1.25 versus Harju xG against 1.88, yielding 1.57 for Flora; Harju xG for 1.78 versus Flora xG against 2.19, yielding 1.99 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Flora scored 12 goals (2.4 per match), and Harju 7 goals (1.4 per match), giving a combined average of 3.8 goals and confirming an offensive trend. Seasonal 'over' indicators also support this picture: over 1.5 occurred for Flora in 80% and for Harju in 100% of matches, over 2.5 in 40%/75% of cases, while over 3.5 is 40% for Flora and 25% for Harju. Based on this, the strongest signal is the over at the 1.5 line (highest probability), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5; Over 2.5 also looks attractive (~78%), and Over 3.5 is riskier (~57%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw appears most likely: the home side were level at the break in 60% of matches, the visitors in 50%, and first-half goals average 1.2 (home) versus 1.25 (away), indicating balanced, low-scoring opening 45 minutes. In the second half the advantage shifts to the visitors — away xG is 1.78 versus 1.25 for the home side, shot averages are 15.5 vs 9.0, and second-half goals average 2.0 (away) vs 1.4 (home), so the visitors create more and convert chances more frequently after the break. Additionally, visitors won 75% of matches this season compared to 40% for the hosts, and the proportion of matches in which the visitors scored at least one goal after the break is 100% (over05_2hg_percentage_away), which increases the likelihood of an away win following a half-time draw. Considering also the home defence vulnerability (xG against the home side 2.19), the most probable scenario is a half-time draw and an away win (X/2) — 33%; the remaining distribution includes 12% for 1/1, 18% for 2/2 and 15% for X/X, with lower probabilities assigned to the other combinations.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tallinna FC Flora | Harju Jalgpallikool | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tallinna FC Flora is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1.4 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tallinna FC Flora is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.78 goals / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1.56 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Tallinna FC Flora scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Harju Jalgpallikool keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Harju Jalgpallikool scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Tallinna FC Flora keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Flora
Over / Under - Harju Jalgpallikool
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tallinna FC Flora is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1.22 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tallinna FC Flora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Harju Jalgpallikool - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tallinna FC Flora
Harju Jalgpallikool
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Tallinna FC Flora | Liga | Harju Jalgpallikool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.11 | 3.29 | ▼ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 58% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 67% | 67% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 22% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 73% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 89% | 91% | ▼ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Tallinna FC Flora 4 - 0 - 1 Harju Jalgpallikool. Average goals 3.40, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
The Meistriliiga match finished Tallinna FC Flora 5:0 Harju Jalgpallikool. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tallinna FC Flora and Harju Jalgpallikool?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Tallinna FC Flora won 4, Harju Jalgpallikool won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
Tallinna FC Flora score 1.78 goals per game on average and Harju Jalgpallikool 1.56. The Meistriliiga average is 3.29 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Tallinna FC Flora's matches and 56% of Harju Jalgpallikool's.
What form are Tallinna FC Flora and Harju Jalgpallikool in?
Over the last 5 games Tallinna FC Flora have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Harju Jalgpallikool 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.