Tallinna FC Flora vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

I expect a victory for Tallinn FC Flora (1) based on very strong home metrics. At home the hosts average 3.00 goals scored and concede only 0.33 per match, with a 67% clean sheet rate and 83% home win rate, while Levadia on the road average 2.57 goals scored and concede 0.86 with only 14% clean sheets. However, the visitors lead the league and have more goals this season (39 vs 29) and higher away xG (2.67 vs Flora’s home xG 2.01), which indicates their superiority in chance creation (22.86 shots per match vs Flora’s 16.33). In the last 5 matches both teams won all fixtures, but Flora conceded only 1 goal in those 5 games compared to Levadia’s 3, which favors the hosts’ defensive solidity. Therefore I assess that the odds favor the hosts, although the match should remain open and high-scoring.

Seasonal data strongly support BTTS: Levadia has BTTS in 86% of matches, Flora in 43%, and the league average is 52%, indicating a strong tendency for Levadia to be involved in Goal/Goal games. Both teams score frequently — Flora at home 3.00 goals/match (29 goals this season), Levadia 2.57 (39 goals) and in the last 5 matches averaging 2.8 and 3.0 goals respectively — this increases the likelihood that both will find the net. Additionally Levadia posts a higher xG (2.67 vs Flora’s 2.05) and more shots on target (8.29 vs 6.43), i.e. generates more quality chances, although Flora has the better defense (conceding 0.57 goals on average this season and 57% clean sheets). The fact that 71% of Levadia’s matches are simultaneously over 2.5 goals and BTTS, together with a high share of over 2.5-goal games for both teams (71%), pushes me to select BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome. I estimate BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% for No Goal.

Both teams are in excellent attacking form: Flora averages 3.00 goals per match, Levadia 2.57, and in the last 5 fixtures Flora scored 14 goals (avg. 2.8), Levadia 15 goals (avg. 3.0). xG analysis shows 2.05 for Flora and 2.67 for Levadia, with opponents’ xG 0.98 for both; averaged this yields expected 1.52 goals for Flora and 1.83 for Levadia, a total of 3.35 expected goals. Season-long metrics confirm high goal potential: Over 1.5 is 100% for Flora and 86% for Levadia, while Over 2.5 is 71% for both teams, making Over 1.5 particularly reliable. Levadia have 86% of matches with both teams scoring, Flora 43%; additionally Flora average 17.14 shots (6.43 on target), Levadia 22.86 shots (8.29 on target) with conversion rates 18% vs 11%, which increases the chance of chances being taken. Given the 3.35 expected goals, season percentages and form (both teams on 5 wins), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest betting signal.

The primary signal indicates Flora leading at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 71% of matches, average half-time goals for 1.57 and conceded only 0.14, and keep a half-time clean sheet in 86% of their games. Conversely, Levadia posts higher xG (2.67 vs 2.05) and more shots and shots on target (22.86/8.29 vs 17.14/6.43), increasing their chance of a turnaround after the break. Second-half data, however, favor the hosts maintaining their lead: Flora scores an average of 1.43 goals after half-time while Levadia concedes 0.29 on average after the break, and across the season Flora preserves a full-time clean sheet in 57% of matches, supporting a 1/1 scenario. Therefore the top single forecast is 1/1 (40%), while leaving room for a draw/recovery by the visitors — 1/X 12% and 1/2 10% — with the remaining uncertainty distributed among other scenarios (HT draw 22% total, HT away lead 16% total).