Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tallinna FC Levadia played Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 20 June 2026. Venue: A. Le Coq Arena. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Tallinna FC Levadia: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tallinna FC Levadia scores 2.75 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 1.75 and concedes 0.81. League average: 3.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tallinna FC Levadia 69%, Nõmme Kalju 44%. Over 2.5: Tallinna FC Levadia 75%, Nõmme Kalju 44%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Tallinna FC Levadia has higher xG: 2.31 vs 1.80. Tallinna FC Levadia: 19.6 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 14.9.
Match halves
Tallinna FC Levadia: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.38. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Tallinna FC Levadia: 61-75 (9 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.09 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tallinna FC Levadia sit 1st (record 13-3-0) and have scored 44 goals this season; at home they average 3.0 goals per game and have 15 goals in their last 5 matches (3.0 per game). At their ground the hosts average 17.14 shots and 6.43 on target, have xG 2.05 and a conversion rate of 18%, while Nõmme Kalju away average 14.14 shots, 4.14 on target, xG 1.71 and a 10% conversion. Both teams concede on average 0.57 goals at their respective home/away venues, but Levadia have not had a goalless home game (0% of matches without a goal), whereas Kalju have 14% of away matches without a goal, which increases the hosts' offensive edge. Levadia have won 5 of their last 5 matches (3.0 pts per game in that run), while Kalju have collected 7 points in five matches (1.4 pts per game). Considering higher season goal totals (44 vs 28), superior xG and greater shot efficiency for the hosts, I predict a Tallinna FC Levadia win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In the last 5 matches Tallinna FC Levadia has BTTS at 80% (4/5), while Nõmme Kalju is at 60% (3/5), indicating both teams often score and concede in the short term. Over the season Levadia records BTTS in 67% of games and averages 2.0 goals scored (44 in the season), whereas Kalju has a season BTTS of only 14% and keeps 71% clean sheets with an average of 0.57 goals conceded, which favors No Goal in the long run. On the other hand Levadia creates more chances (xG 1.86 vs Kalju xG 1.11) and averages 5.89 shots on target, and over the last 5 matches they averaged 3.0 goals, so the home side have genuine scoring potential. Considering Levadia's strong recent form (5 wins, 15 goals in 5 matches) and Kalju's defensive weakening in the short term (conceding 1.2 goals on average in the last 5), I lean toward the BTTS scenario: 60% for "BTTS - Yes" versus 40% for "No Goal".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and match statistics, I project 1.49 goals for Tallinna FC Levadia (average xG_for_home 1.86 and xG_against_away 1.11) and 1.57 goals for Nõmme Kalju (average xG_for_away 1.71 and xG_against_home 1.43), totaling 3.06 expected goals. The goal distribution model yields approximately an 81% probability of Over 1.5, 59% for Over 2.5 and 37% for Over 3.5, so Over 1.5 is the most likely outcome. Season figures support this: Levadia scored 44 goals this season (2.0 per home match) and have 78% of matches over 1.5, while Kalju averages 1.43 goals away with 57% of such matches; the league averages 3.08 goals per match. A counterpoint: Kalju have 71% clean sheets this season and a low away BTTS of 14%, which limits the probability of a very high Over 3.5 (only ~37%). Considering the projected 3.06 goals, Levadia’s strong form (15 goals in the last 5 matches, 3.0 average) and the hosts’ relatively high shot rates (15.44 shots and 5.89 on target), I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest and most reliable signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is Tallinn FC Levadia leading at the break and the hosts winning the match (HT/FT = 1/1) — I assign it a 35% probability, because the hosts won 5 of their last 5 matches (100%) and led at half-time in 60% of those games. In Levadia’s last 5 matches they scored an average of 1.8 goals by half-time versus 0.6 for Nõmme Kalju, and the overall half-time goal average was 2.4 for the home side vs 1.0 for the visitors (2.4 vs 1.0). Additionally, Levadia has higher xG (1.86 vs 1.71), more shots on target (5.89 vs 4.14) and a better conversion rate (13% vs 10%), indicating efficiency in creating and converting chances. Seasonal figures favor the visitors in terms of overall wins (71% vs 44%), however the hosts’ current form (an average of 3.0 points in their last 5 matches vs 1.4 for the visitors) supports maintaining the lead from half-time to full-time. Therefore 1/1 presents the strongest signal; comeback scenarios for the visitors (e.g. 1/2 or X/2) were deemed less likely and assigned substantially lower percentage shares.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tallinna FC Levadia | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 114% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia · 1.4 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
2.75 goals / match - Tallinna FC Levadia · 1.75 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Tallinna FC Levadia is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Tallinna FC Levadia · 0.81 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Tallinna FC Levadia scores in 100% of matches (16 of 16 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 88% of matches (14 of 16 matches), while Tallinna FC Levadia keeps a clean sheet in 31% (5 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Levadia
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.06 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia · 1.81 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tallinna FC Levadia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tallinna FC Levadia
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Tallinna FC Levadia | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 3.09 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 55% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 75% | 65% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 24% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 74% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 94% | 90% | ▼ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Nõmme KaljuYellow cardGodwin Chinemeren
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Tallinna FC Levadia 2 - 1 - 2 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Tallinna FC Levadia 1:1 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tallinna FC Levadia and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Tallinna FC Levadia won 2, Nõmme Kalju won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme Kalju?
Tallinna FC Levadia score 2.75 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 1.75. The Meistriliiga average is 3.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Tallinna FC Levadia's matches and 44% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Tallinna FC Levadia and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Tallinna FC Levadia have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme Kalju?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.