Tallinna FC Levadia vs Nõmme United: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia lead the table with 14 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat, while Nõmme United sit eighth with a record of 8 wins and 12 losses. At home, the hosts score an average of 2.56 goals with an xG of 2.12, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.40 goals per away game and have kept no clean sheets. Levadia average 58% possession, 17.89 shots and 6 shots on target per match, clearly outperforming their opponents’ away figures of 10.2 shots and 3.2 shots on target. The hosts’ defence allows an average of 0.78 goals at home, while Nõmme United have a negative away goal difference of -9. Although the visitors have scored 19 goals in their last five matches, the superior chance quality, game control and defensive stability point to a Levadia victory.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both teams have recorded this outcome with almost identical frequency this season: Levadia in 91% of matches and Nõmme United in 90%, compared with the league average of 57%. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, while their average goals conceded stand at 2.18 and 2.40 per match, respectively. Levadia scores an average of 2.27 goals and records 5.0 shots on target per match, while Nõmme United scores 1.50 goals, supporting the scenario of goals at both ends. In their last five appearances, the hosts had BTTS in 60% of matches and the visitors in 80%, averaging 2.8 and 3.8 goals scored, respectively. Additionally, the teams’ average xG figures—1.71 for Levadia and 1.29 for Nõmme United—indicate genuine attacking potential on both sides.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as at least two goals were scored in 100% of the matches involving both teams this season. Levadia averages 2.27 goals per match, while Nõmme United concedes as many as 2.40, supporting a forecast of around 2.15 goals for the home side. The visitors score an average of 1.50 goals, with neither team keeping a clean sheet and the average xG against Levadia standing at 1.94. The last five matches were even more high-scoring: Levadia averaged 2.8 goals, while Nõmme United averaged as many as 3.8, with Over 2.5 landing in 80% and 100% of these matches, respectively. However, the 1.5 line offers the greatest margin of safety, as even with lower finishing efficiency, just two goals are needed for the pick to land.

The strongest signal points to Levadia leading at the break: in their last five matches, the home side had the lead at half-time in 60% of games, while Nõmme United were trailing at that stage in 75%. Over the same period, Levadia averaged 1.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time, whereas the visitors scored 0.75 goals and conceded as many as 1.5. After the break, the hosts still hold a qualitative advantage, averaging 1.45 goals per half, while their opponents concede 1.4 goals in second halves. Levadia also register more shots on target across the full match, averaging 5.0 compared with 3.2, and their xG stands at 1.71 versus 1.29 for the visitors. The risk remains significant, as Nõmme United have a 40% win rate this season compared with Levadia’s 36%; however, the hosts’ advantage in current first-half performance makes the 1/1 scenario the most likely outcome.