Tammeka vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics

Tammeka holds a clear advantage in form and defense: in the last 5 matches the home side scored 6 goals, won 3, drew 1 and average 2.0 points per game, while Harju also scored 6 goals but won only 1 match and average 0.6 points (last 5: 1-0-4). In home matches Tammeka averages 4.11 shots on target and 1.11 goals with 52% possession, whereas Harju away records 3.13 shots on target, 1.00 goal on average and concedes as many as 1.88 goals per game. The defensive gap is significant: the hosts have 33% clean sheets at home, the visitors only 13%, and the share of matches without scoring is 33% for Tammeka versus 50% for Harju. xG is similar (1.35 for Tammeka vs 1.38 for Harju), indicating the result will depend on finishing efficiency and defensive organization; the hosts have a slightly higher shot conversion 10% versus 9% for the visitors. Considering better last-5 stats (2.0 pts vs 0.6 pts), more shots on target (4.11 vs 3.13) and a lower average goals conceded (1.11 vs 1.88), I predict a home win.

I recommend No BTTS (no) with a 55% probability vs 45% for BTTS - Yes. Harju fails to score in 50% of their matches this season, while Tammeka keeps a clean sheet in only 11% of games. Tammeka averages 1.44 goals per match with xG 1.58; in the last 5 matches they scored 6 and conceded 3 (1.2 and 0.6), indicating improved defense. Harju has a season scoring average of 1.0 and xG 1.38, seasonal BTTS rate of 38% and in the last 5 matches scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2 and 1.6), suggesting they often fail to reply with a goal. Both teams had 40% BTTS in their last 5 matches, below the league BTTS average of 56%, which reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. A simple independence model gives an estimate around 0.89*0.50 = 44.5% for BTTS, and the mean of seasonal BTTS rates (56% and 38% → 47%) confirms the value for 'yes' is below 50%, so stronger signals point to No Goal.

Average xG for Tammeka are 1.58 and for Harju 1.38; opponents generate 2.01 and 1.84 xG against them respectively, yielding expected goals of 1.71 for the home side and 1.70 for the away side (total 3.41). Season-long metrics confirm a tendency toward goals: Tammeka have 89% of matches over 1.5 goals and 67% over 2.5, Harju 75% and 63% respectively. In the last 5 fixtures Tammeka scored 6 and conceded 3 (avg 1.2/0.6), while Harju scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2/1.6), indicating stronger defensive form from the hosts but still an open match. A Poisson model at a total of 3.41 gives roughly an 85% probability for Over 1.5, about 66% for Over 2.5 and about 44% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (85% vs 15%) — Over 2.5 (66%) is a reasonable alternative at higher odds.

First-half statistics indicate a clear tendency toward a draw: the home side were level at the break in 56% of their season matches, and in Tammeka’s last five fixtures they were level at half-time in 100% of cases. The hosts score an average of 0.67 goals before the break versus 0.38 for Harju, while the visitors concede an average of 1.13 goals by half-time, which increases the likelihood of a low-scoring first half. In the second half Tammeka hold the advantage — the average number of goals after the break is 2.0 for the hosts versus 1.38 for the visitors, and 67% of Tammeka’s matches feature at least two second-half goals compared to 25% for Harju, which favors a potential turnaround. Additionally, in their last five matches the hosts won 60% of games (3 of 5), with xG of 1.58 versus 1.38 and a higher number of on-target shots (4.44 vs 3.13); therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is a half-time draw with a home win at full-time (X/1).