Tammeka vs Nõmme United: match statistics

Tammeka sit 5th and have won 50% of their home matches, while ninth-placed Nõmme United have lost 57% of their away fixtures. The biggest difference is in defence: the hosts concede an average of 1.21 goals at home, compared with 2.50 for the visitors away, who have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. The quality of chances conceded by both teams also favours Tammeka: their home xG against is 1.62, versus 2.22 for Nõmme United away. Both sides have won 2 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals each, so current form gives the hosts no clear advantage. The visitors average 1.29 goals per game away, compared with Tammeka’s 1.21 at home, but their significantly greater defensive vulnerability tips the prediction towards the hosts.

BTTS has landed in 87% of Tammeka’s matches and 79% of Nõmme United’s, well above the league average of 59%. Both teams concede heavily—2.20 goals per game on average for the hosts and 2.50 for the visitors—and neither has kept a clean sheet this season. Tammeka score an average of 1.93 goals, while Nõmme United average 1.29; their attacking xG stands at 1.70 and 1.35 respectively, giving both sides a solid basis for creating chances. Over their last 5 matches, each team has scored an average of 1.60 goals, with BTTS landing in 60% of Tammeka’s games and 80% of Nõmme United’s. The main risk for BTTS - Yes is that the visitors have failed to score in 21% of their matches. However, their attacking output and the hosts’ poor defensive record point towards both teams finding the net.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 93% of matches for both Tammeka and Nõmme United. The hosts average 1.93 goals scored, while the visitors concede 2.5, giving Tammeka clear scoring opportunities. Nõmme United, meanwhile, average 1.29 goals scored, while Tammeka concede 2.2; neither team has kept a clean sheet in the matches considered. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of the last five matches for both teams, so the case for at least two goals is particularly well supported by the data.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is Tammeka leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes, although its edge over other scenarios is narrow. The hosts average 5.27 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 3.57, while their xG is 1.70 against Nõmme United’s 1.35, pointing to a greater volume of chances. A half-time lead remains uncertain: Tammeka have led at the break in 27% of their matches, while their opponents have been trailing at half-time in 43%. The second-half figures support the hosts holding on to a potential advantage: they score an average of 1.27 goals after the break, while the visitors concede 1.50. Caution is warranted, however, as Nõmme United led at half-time in three of their last five matches, so scenarios involving the visitors taking the lead also account for a meaningful share of the forecast.