Tammeka vs Paide: match statistics

Tammeka head into the match in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 4, while Paide’s record over the same period stands at 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, having conceded 9 goals. Home advantage also favours the hosts, who win 58% of their home matches, concede an average of just 1.00 goals there and keep a clean sheet in 33% of their games. Paide do create more chances away from home, averaging 14.85 shots and recording an xG of 1.77 compared with Tammeka’s 1.33, but their defence concedes as many as 1.62 goals per away match. The visitors have failed to score in only 8% of their away games, so they are genuinely capable of finding the net; however, Tammeka’s recent run and their significantly better defensive organisation in recent weeks slightly shift the prediction in favour of the hosts.

Paide has a very strong BTTS profile, as both teams scored in 85% of its league matches, with that figure reaching 80% across the last 5 games. The visitors concede an average of 1.62 goals per match this season and as many as 1.8 in their last five outings, while keeping a clean sheet in just 8% of matches—strongly supporting a Tammeka goal. Tammeka averages 1.55 goals per match, rising to 1.8 recently, and its xG of 1.70 is higher than Paide’s xG against opponents, which stands at 1.57. Paide should also respond with a goal: it creates an average of 1.77 xG and registers 5.0 shots on target per match, while Tammeka allows opponents 1.48 xG. The hosts have kept clean sheets in 36% of matches and conceded only 0.8 goals per game across their last five, so the risk of a No Goal scenario for Paide remains significant; however, the data still points more strongly towards BTTS - Yes.

Tammeka average 1.55 goals at home, while Paide concede 1.62 goals away, creating favorable conditions for a home goal. The visitors score an average of 1.77 goals per match and generate 1.77 xG, although Tammeka’s more solid defense, conceding 0.91 goals, limits their projection to around 1.35 goals. In their last five matches, both teams recorded an average of 3.4 total goals, while Paide conceded 9 goals during that period, or 1.8 per match. At least two goals were scored in 85% of Paide’s matches and 55% of Tammeka’s, which is why Over 1.5 has a clearer edge than the more demanding Over 2.5 line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Tammeka win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 45% of their matches, compared with 62% for Paide. Tammeka have clearly better defensive control: they concede an average of 0.91 goals per match versus Paide’s 1.62, while over their last five appearances the ratio stands at 0.8 to 1.8. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.82 goals and concede only 0.45, whereas Paide allow opponents an average of 0.85 goals in this period. Current form also favours Tammeka, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 goals in them, compared with Paide’s 1.6. Although a Tammeka lead at the break is also a realistic possibility, Paide’s cautious start and the high rate of first-half draws strengthen the X/1 option.