Tammeka vs Vaprus: match statistics

I forecast a home win. Tammeka has the advantage in quality of chances: at home they average 9.29 shots per match (3.86 on target) with xG 1.16, while Vaprus as the away side averages 6.71 shots (2.71 on target) with xG 0.94. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Tammeka concedes 1.43 goals on average at home and have conceded 19 goals this season, whereas Vaprus concede 2.14 goals away and have 29 conceded overall. In the last 5 matches both teams share a record of 3 wins and 2 losses (averaging 1.8 points), but Tammeka scored 5 and conceded 3 in that period, while Vaprus scored 8 and conceded 10, indicating greater defensive instability from the visitors. Considering the higher volume of chances and higher xG for the hosts, I give them a slight edge — 55% for Tammeka, 20% for a draw and 25% for Vaprus.

I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 64% vs 36%. Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Tammeka 57% and Vaprus 71%, versus a league average of 52%, indicating a propensity for matches where both sides score. Both teams concede a lot this season (avg 2.00 for Tammeka and 2.14 for Vaprus), and xG against stands at 1.61 and 1.96 respectively, confirming opponents create over 1.6 expected goals against each. Vaprus have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches and average 1.6 goals scored, while Tammeka have only 20% BTTS in their last 5 and concede on average 0.6 goals — Tammeka’s defensive improvement slightly reduces BTTS chances but is not enough to rule out a both-teams-to-score outcome. Additionally Tammeka have xG_for 1.30 and average 4.0 shots on target per game, while Vaprus have xG_for 0.94 and 2.71 shots on target; the high share of matches over 2.5 goals (57% and 71%) pushes the model probability in favor of Yes.

I assess Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: both teams have 86% of season matches with more than 1.5 goals (Tammeka 86%, Vaprus 86%), while the league average is 3.17 goals per match. xG shows 1.3 xG for Tammeka and 0.94 xG for Vaprus, whereas xG against is 1.61 (Tammeka) and 1.96 (Vaprus), translating to an expected 1.63 goals for the home side and 1.28 for the away, totaling around 2.91 goals. Tammeka averages 4.0 shots on target per match versus Vaprus 2.71, and clean sheet rates are low (29% vs 14%), which together with BTTS 57% vs 71% increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Over 2.5 also makes sense (I estimate 64%) because the share of matches >2.5 is 57% for Tammeka and 71% for Vaprus, but I rate Over 3.5 lower (35%) due to mismatch between the teams and the predicted total of ~2.9. Therefore I recommend backing the Over at the 1.5 line as the safest choice.

At half-time the most common score is a draw: Tammeka were level at the break in 4 of 7 matches (57%), led at half-time in 2 of 7 (29%), while Vaprus led in only 1 of 7 (14%). In the second half the hosts are more dangerous — they score on average 1.00 goals after the break versus 0.43 for the away side, and 6 of 7 Tammeka matches featured more than 0.5 goals after the interval (86%), while Vaprus recorded that in all 7 of 7 (100%). Tammeka also have a higher offensive xG of 1.30 versus Vaprus’s 0.94, plus more shots on average 9.86 vs 6.71 and more shots on target 4.0 vs 2.71, which suggests a greater ability to create chances after the break. Given the dominant tendency for draws at half-time (57%) combined with the hosts’ stronger second-half performance, the scenario of a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1) is the strongest. Therefore I assigned that scenario the highest probability of 35%, with 1/1 as the second most likely outcome at 22%.