Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Charleston Battery: match statistics

Tampa Bay Rowdies as hosts display markedly superior metrics: at home they have 8 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game and conceding 0.6, yielding a goal difference of +9 and 60% clean sheets. Charleston Battery away form is poor — they win only 20% of such matches, average 0.4 goals scored and concede 1.8, with 80% of away games without scoring and a goal difference of -7 on the road. The gap in chance creation is significant: Rowdies average 15.4 shots and 6.4 on target per home match with xG 1.76, while Charleston register 9.2 shots and 3.2 on target with xG 1.25 away, but a low conversion rate of 4% means chances do not translate into goals. Additionally Tampa Bay have won 5 of their last 5 matches overall and scored 12 goals while conceding just 1 in their last 5 home games, whereas the visitors have a last-5 away record of 1 win and 4 losses, indicating a trend favoring the hosts. Based on this I predict a home win; I assess probabilities as 80% for a Tampa Bay triumph, 12% for a draw and 8% for a Charleston win, primarily due to the advantage in shots on target (6.4 vs 3.2), conversion rate (16% vs 4%) and superior clean sheet rate (60% vs 20%).

I predict no BTTS (No), because Tampa Bay averages 2.4 goals per match with xG 1.88, while Charleston has a season average of only 0.4 goals with xG 1.25, creating a clear offensive advantage for the home side. Tampa averages 14.6 shots with 6.8 on target and a 16% conversion rate, whereas the visitors record 9.2 shots, 3.2 on target and only a 4% conversion, so Charleston’s real finishing ability is very limited. Additionally, Tampa have 40% clean sheets and concede 0.8 goals per game, while Charleston concedes 1.8 and have a season BTTS of 0% (BTTS in the last 5 away matches also 0%), which increases the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. Although the league BTTS level is 54% and home-season BTTS is 60%, only 20% of Tampa’s last 5 matches featured BTTS, so combining the 2.4 vs 0.4 goal averages and Charleston’s 4% conversion, I back 'No' with confidence.

Based on xG, I expect 1.69 goals for Tampa (xG_for 1.88 and opponent xG_against 1.50 → average 1.69) and 1.14 goals for Charleston (xG_for 1.25 and home xG_against 1.03 → average 1.14), giving a total of 2.83 expected goals. Tampa averages 2.4 goals at home and generates 14.6 shots (6.8 on target), while Charleston scores 0.4 goals away and registers only 3.2 shots on target — this highlights the hosts’ offensive edge and a higher probability of goals. Seasonal percentages confirm the direction: Tampa has 100% of home matches over 1.5 goals, Charleston 60% — therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 92% probability. The 2.5 line moderately favors the Over (approx. 68%) since season Over25 is 60% for Tampa and 40% for Charleston and the combined xG 2.83 exceeds 2.5. The 3.5 line is less likely (Over ~28%), so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favorites: season averages are 2.4 goals per match for the home side versus 0.4 for Charleston, with win rates of 80% vs 20% and xG of 1.88 compared to 1.25 for the visitors. At Half-Time the hosts average 1.2 goals and lead at the break in 60% of matches, while the visitors have 0.2 goals at Half-Time and lead at the break in only 20%, which indicates a high probability of a lead at the break. Additionally, Tampa records 6.8 shots on target and a 16% conversion rate versus 3.2 and 4% for the visitors, and in the last five matches the hosts were leading at Half-Time in 80% and won all five (100%), demonstrating that leads at the break convert into Full-Time wins. On this basis the safest HT/FT is 1/1 (approx. 54%); alternatives are X/1 (12%) or 1/X (6%), and a turnaround or a win for the visitors is assessed as unlikely.