Tapatío vs CA La Paz: match statistics

CA La Paz head into the match in better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 12 goals in that span, while Tapatío have recorded 1 win and scored 7 goals. Away from home, the visitors average 2.8 goals from an xG of 1.78, while the hosts score 2 goals at home from an xG of 1.38, pointing to greater attacking potential from CA La Paz. The visitors also average 5.8 shots on target away from home, compared with Tapatío’s 4 at home. However, backing the visitors is not without risk: they concede an average of 1.6 goals away from home, while Tapatío win 60% of their home matches and keep a clean sheet in 60% of them. Despite the hosts’ strengths, the more effective attack and the more favourable recent-results trend point towards a CA La Paz win.

The prospect of both teams scoring is supported by BTTS rates of 50% in Tapatío matches and 80% in CA La Paz fixtures, compared with the league average of 56%. The visitors average 2.8 goals per match and have scored in every game so far, although the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches. Tapatío average 1.67 goals, while CA La Paz concede 1.6; additionally, the hosts’ xG of 1.74 against the visitors’ 1.72 xG conceded points to a goal for the home side. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of Tapatío games and 80% of CA La Paz games, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals over that period. Despite Tapatío’s solid season average of 0.83 goals conceded, the visitors’ attacking potential and defensive vulnerability make BTTS - Yes the stronger pick.

At least 2 goals were scored in 83% of Tapatío matches and 100% of CA La Paz matches, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. The visitors average 2.8 goals scored, although the hosts concede just 0.83 on average, which calls for a more cautious forecast of their scoring output. On the other hand, Tapatío average 1.67 goals scored, while CA La Paz concede 1.6; the two attacks’ average xG figures of 1.74 and 1.78, respectively, also support a both-teams-to-score scenario. The 2.5 line is less certain, having been surpassed in 50% of the hosts’ matches compared with 100% of the visitors’ matches. With a forecast total of 3.5 goals, Over 1.5 therefore offers the stronger case without requiring an especially high-scoring game.

The strongest signal is CA La Paz leading at the break: the visitors did so in 4 of 5 away matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, while Tapatío averaged 0.83 goals over the same period. After 45 minutes, the visitors had conceded an average of just 0.2 goals, increasing the likelihood of them holding on to any lead. Across full matches, CA La Paz average 2.8 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.67, and in their last five games they have earned 2.0 points per match compared with Tapatío’s 0.8. A draw at half-time remains a notable alternative, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of 6 matches, while the visitors had led at half-time only twice in their last five games. Nevertheless, the combination of CA La Paz’s strong starts and their better recent scoring form points primarily to the visitors leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes.