Tapatío vs Cancún: match statistics
Tapatío vs Cancún: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tapatío played Cancún in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 24 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Tapatío: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Cancún: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tapatío scores 1.71 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Cancún scores 1.70 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tapatío 68%, Cancún 57%. Over 2.5: Tapatío 71%, Cancún 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Tapatío has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.41. Tapatío: 12.1 shots per match, Cancún: 11.4.
Match halves
Tapatío: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.86. Cancún: half-time lead 53%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Tapatío: 76-90+ (13 goals). Cancún: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.89 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (2). Cancún has 16 wins this season versus Tapatío’s 10, and in the last 5 matches has scored 11 goals and averaged 2.2 points per game, while the hosts have 8 goals in their last 5 and 1.2 PPG. Tapatío at home shows a strong attack — on average 2.14 goals, 13.64 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game (conversion 16%) and only 7% of matches without a goal, however Cancún away averages 1.4 goals with 9.73 shots (conversion 14%). Defensively the visitors concede 1.13 goals away versus 1.29 conceded by the hosts at home, and the overall goal record is 51-28 for Cancún vs 48-42 for Tapatío, giving the visitors an edge in defensive quality and results. Additionally xG shows 1.55 xG for Tapatío vs 1.17 xG for Cancún and 1.43 xG against Tapatío vs 2.03 xG against Cancún, yet the better form of the visitors (last 5: 3 wins and 2 draws) leads me to favor Cancún.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The "both teams to score" scenario looks more likely: Tapatío averages 2.0 goals at home, while Cancún scores 1.4 away; seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for the home side and 60% for the visitors. Over the last 5 matches the signal is even stronger — Tapatío has 80% BTTS and Cancún 100%, with average goals in those five games of 1.6 (Tapatío) and 2.2 (Cancún). The quality of chances confirms this picture: Tapatío generates xG 1.64 and averages 13.0 shots with 5.33 on target per match, while Cancún allows opponents xG 2.03 and averages 9.73 shots with 4.33 on target. Even though Tapatío records a relatively high clean sheet rate (40%) and a lower seasonal home goals-against average of 0.73, the high xG against Cancún (2.03) and the fact that the visitors have scored 11 and conceded 7 in their last 5 matches point toward goals at both ends. Therefore I assign 'BTTS: Yes' a 78% probability versus 22% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and goal analysis point to a goals-heavy match: attacking xG is 1.64 for Tapatío and 1.17 for Cancún, while xG against is 1.30 (Tapatío) and 2.03 (Cancún); averaging yields forecasted 1.84 goals for the home side and 1.23 for the away side (total 3.07). Hosts average 2.0 goals per game, visitors 1.4, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 73% for Tapatío and 67% for Cancún — roughly 70% on average. In the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 100% of cases and scored 8 (Tapatío) and 11 (Cancún) goals respectively, boosting the probability of exceeding 2.5 to about 62%. The share of matches with both teams scoring is 53% (Tapatío) and 60% (Cancún), and in the last 5 fixtures it was 80% and 100%, so I expect BTTS. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest line to play: high seasonal baseline (73% and 67%), total xG of 3.07 and current form (last 5 matches 100% Over 2.5) favor this line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and Tapatío winning the match (1/1). The hosts led at half-time in 9 of their seasonal matches (60%) and score on average 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.87 for Cancún, which, together with an offensive advantage (xG 1.64 vs 1.17), supports their chances of taking a lead in the first half. Additionally, Tapatío averages 13 shots (5.33 on target) compared to the visitors’ 9.73 (4.33), and over the season scores 2.0 goals and concedes 0.73 per match while Cancún allows an average xG of 2.03 and concedes 1.13 goals per match, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining their lead and winning. Caution is advised, however, as Cancún are in good form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 60%) and seasonal BTTS rates of 53% for the home team and 60% for the visitors indicate both teams often score, so certainty is not absolute.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cancún is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Tapatío · 2.2 pts / match - Cancún
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Tapatío · 0.93 goals / match - Cancún
Tapatío scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 matches).
Cancún scores in 83% of matches (25 of 30 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Cancún
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.46 pts / match - Tapatío · 2 pts / match - Cancún
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 36%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 53% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tapatío
Cancún
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.21 | 2.89 | ▼ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 56% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 54% | • 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 93% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 81% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tapatío 0 - 0 - 2 Cancún. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Cancún?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 1:1 Cancún. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tapatío and Cancún?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 0, Cancún won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Cancún?
Tapatío score 1.71 goals per game on average and Cancún 1.70. The Ascenso MX average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Tapatío's matches and 57% of Cancún's.
What form are Tapatío and Cancún in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Cancún 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Cancún?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.