Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: match statistics

Leones Negros boast a very strong away record: they have won all 3 matches played away from home so far, scoring an average of 2.67 goals per game. The visitors are also more clinical in front of goal, converting 27% of their attempts from 10 shots per match, compared with Tapatío’s 13% conversion rate from 13 shots. Both teams have scored 10–11 goals in their last 5 matches and collected 10 points each, but Leones Negros conceded just 5 goals during this period, compared with 8 for the hosts. Tapatío have won 67% of their home matches and concede an average of only 0.67 goals, meaning their home advantage clearly increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Nevertheless, the visitors’ three-match away winning streak, their failure to draw a blank in any away fixture, and superior attacking efficiency all point to a narrow win for Leones Negros.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, well above the league average of 53%. Tapatío score an average of 2.00 goals, while Leones Negros average 2.67, and neither side has yet finished a seasonal match without scoring. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while the visitors scored an average of 2.0 goals per match. The xG data also supports goals at both ends: Tapatío create chances worth 1.85 xG, while the Leones Negros defence allows an average of 1.61 xG. Each team has kept a clean sheet in only 33% of matches, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

Both teams have surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far, with their average total goals standing at 3.33 for Tapatío games and 3.67 for Leones Negros matches. Tapatío average 2.00 goals scored, while the visitors average 2.67, and neither team has finished a match without scoring. The hosts create chances worth 1.85 xG, while Leones Negros’ defence allows opponents 1.61 xG; on the other side, the visitors’ 1.29 xG and Tapatío’s 1.53 xG conceded also support a goals market. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of their matches, but the strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, backed by the high attacking consistency of both sides.

Leones Negros have a very strong opening profile: they were leading at the break in all three matches covered by the data, and did so in 60% of their last five. The visitors averaged 2.0 goals before half-time across the full sample and 1.8 in their last five appearances, while Tapatío have recently scored just 0.8 goals during this phase. Leones Negros’ superiority is also reflected in the full-time results, having won 100% of their season matches and averaging 2.67 goals scored against just 1.00 conceded. Tapatío have the higher own xG, 1.85 compared with 1.29, and have averaged 1.4 goals per match after the break across their last five games, so turnaround scenarios remain plausible; however, the strongest statistical support points to the visitors leading at half-time and holding on for the win.