Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tapatío played Tepatitlán de Morelos in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 13 October 2026. Venue: Estadio AKRON. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Tapatío: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tapatío scores 1.73 and concedes 1.73 goals per match. Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 0.82 and concedes 2.73. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tapatío 64%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 45%. Over 2.5: Tapatío 64%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 64%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Tapatío has higher xG: 1.32 vs 1.29. Tapatío: 11.4 shots per match, Tepatitlán de Morelos: 11.1.
Match halves
Tapatío: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.00. Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.45.
Goals by minute
Tapatío: 0-15 (5 goals). Tepatitlán de Morelos: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío are the favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Tepatitlán de Morelos have lost all 4 of their away games so far. The hosts average 2 goals per match at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 3.75 on the road. The gap in attacking efficiency is clear: Tepatitlán score just 0.25 goals per away match and have failed to find the net in 75% of those games. Chance quality also favours Tapatío: their home xG stands at 1.38, while their opponents' away xG is 1.11, against 2.07 xG conceded defensively. The hosts' recent form warrants some caution—they have managed just 1 win in 5 matches overall—but the visitors have lost 4 times over the same period and conceded 17 goals.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal against both teams scoring is the visitors’ poor finishing: they average just 0.25 goals away from home and have failed to score in 75% of those matches. Their away BTTS rate is 25%, compared with 50% for Tapatío in home matches. The hosts have a strong chance of scoring, as Tepatitlán concede an average of 3.75 goals away from home and have shipped 17 goals in their last five matches. There is still significant risk in backing BTTS - No: Tapatío concede an average of 2.33 goals at home, while the visitors have averaged 1.41 xG across their last five matches, pointing to chances to find the net. Even so, Tepatitlán’s poor away scoring record makes it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 67% of Tapatío matches and 75% of Tepatitlán de Morelos matches. The visitors concede an average of 3.75 goals and have shipped 17 goals in their last five matches, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to score multiple times. Tapatío score an average of 1.17 goals, but their xG is 1.44, while the visitors’ xG conceded stands at 2.07. The forecast of 2.4 goals for the hosts and 0.9 for the visitors gives a total of 3.3, although the visitors’ attack, averaging just 0.25 goals, tempers confidence in higher lines. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is a stronger signal than Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Tapatío were level at the break in 3 of 6 matches, including 3 of their last 5. Both teams score few goals before the break, averaging 0.33 per match for the home side and 0.25 for the visitors. After the break, the advantage should shift to Tapatío, as Tepatitlán concede an average of 3.0 goals in second halves and have failed to score in any of their 4 matches so far, while the hosts average 0.83 goals. The case for a home win is also supported by their average xG of 1.44 compared with the visitors’ 1.11, and the fact that Tepatitlán have lost all 4 of their matches this season. However, Tapatío concede an average of 2.33 goals per match, so the HT/FT draw/home-win scenario carries some risk.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Tapatío · 0.8 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 111% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - Tapatío · 0.82 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tapatío is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.73 goals / match - Tapatío · 2.73 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tapatío scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 11 matches).
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 45% of matches (5 of 11 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Tapatío · 1.18 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -12 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tapatío
Tepatitlán de Morelos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Tepatitlán de Morelos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.45 | 3.24 | ▲ 3.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 59% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 74% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | • 82% | 81% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Tepatitlán de MorelosYellow cardNeri Martínez
- Tepatitlán de MorelosYellow cardNeri Martínez
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tapatío 0 - 0 - 2 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 4:1 Tepatitlán de Morelos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tapatío and Tepatitlán de Morelos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 0, Tepatitlán de Morelos won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Tapatío score 1.73 goals per game on average and Tepatitlán de Morelos 0.82. The Ascenso MX average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Tapatío's matches and 45% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's.
What form are Tapatío and Tepatitlán de Morelos in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.