Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Dorados: match statistics

Tepatitlán de Morelos have won just 1 of their 6 matches so far, suffering 4 defeats in their last five and conceding as many as 17 goals. At home, the hosts concede an average of 2.67 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets and failed to score in 67% of such games. Dorados are more consistent in attack: they have scored 8 goals in their last five appearances, while away from home they average 2 goals from 4 shots on target per match. The visitors also allow opponents plenty of chances, as reflected by their average xG against of 2.10, so Tepatitlán have a basis for finding the net. Nevertheless, Dorados’ superior current attacking efficiency and the hosts’ clearly weaker defensive performance point to a slightly higher probability of an away win.

The BTTS - Yes scenario is primarily supported by Tepatitlán’s very weak defence: the hosts concede an average of 1.67 goals per season, rising to 3.4 over their last 5 matches. Dorados score an average of 2.0 goals in the competition and 1.6 in their last five fixtures, with an xG of 1.64, so they should create enough chances to score. Despite averaging only 0.8 goals in their last 5 matches, the hosts show a favourable contrast in match data: they generate 2.15 xG and 18 shots per game, while Dorados allow opponents 2.1 xG. BTTS landed in 67% of Tepatitlán’s matches and 50% of Dorados’ fixtures, compared with the league average of 53%, which slightly strengthens the “Yes” selection. The main risk is Dorados’ 50% clean-sheet rate, but their defensive vulnerability and the hosts’ high attacking potential support goals at both ends.

The match profile points to a high probability of at least two goals, as Tepatitlán have conceded an average of 3.4 goals in their last five matches, while Dorados have scored 1.6 goals over the same period. The home side have failed to keep a clean sheet in the league, whereas the visitors have scored at least once in 100% of their matches this season. Dorados have recently created chances worth an average of 1.64 xG, while Tepatitlán’s poor defensive form, with their opponents generating 1.91 xG, supports the likelihood of an away goal. The hosts also possess attacking potential: at home, they average 18 shots and generate 2.15 xG, while Dorados allow opponents 2.10 xG away from home. Over 1.5 goals has been landed in 67% of Tepatitlán’s matches and in all of Dorados’ games, making Over 1.5 clearly the safest option.

Dorados have the clearer first-half profile: they score an average of 2.0 goals before the break, while Tepatitlán have yet to score before half-time and were trailing at the interval in all three matches played so far. The visitors led at the break in 50% of their games, whereas the hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals in the first half, providing the strongest support for a Dorados advantage at half-time. In their last five matches, Tepatitlán conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game and allowed opponents an average of 2.6 goals after the break, while Dorados lost the second half in only 20% of those fixtures. The hosts do create more chances, with an xG of 2.15 compared with 0.87 and an average of 18 shots, but their conversion rate is just 7%, compared with 36% for Dorados. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains the visitors maintaining their lead until full-time.