Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Morelia: match statistics

Morelia hold a clear advantage in their season-wide results: they have won 7 of 11 matches, compared with just 2 wins from 10 for Tepatitlán de Morelos. In their last five fixtures, the visitors have claimed 3 victories and conceded 4 goals, while the hosts have won once and conceded as many as 17. The defensive disparity is particularly significant: Tepatitlán concede an average of 2.33 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, whereas Morelia concede 0.8 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 40% of their away matches. The visitors create chances worth an average xG of 1.65 on the road, compared with the hosts' 1.44 at home, which strengthens the case for a Morelia win against Tepatitlán's weak defence. The risk of an upset remains, however, as Morelia average only 1 goal away from home, while the hosts average 1.17 goals at home.

BTTS - Yes landed in 83% of Tepatitlán’s home matches, with the hosts averaging 2.67 goals at home against an xG of 1.94. Morelia averaged 1.8 goals across their last five matches, while Tepatitlán conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game over that period, significantly increasing the likelihood of an away goal. This signal is tempered by Morelia keeping a clean sheet in 40% of their away matches, and the hosts averaging just 0.8 goals across their last five outings. Even so, Tepatitlán’s strong home attacking numbers and the hosts’ recent defensive frailty point towards both teams scoring, although this outcome has only a slight edge.

In their last 5 matches, Tepatitlán conceded an average of 3.4 goals, while Morelia scored 1.8 per game, giving the visitors a clear opportunity to drive up the goal count. The chance-quality data support this: Tepatitlán’s opponents have recently averaged 2.32 xG, while Morelia have posted 1.88 xG in attack. At home, Tepatitlán averaged 2.67 goals, and every such match featured at least 2 goals, although their scoring average across their last 5 matches has fallen to 0.8. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick; the higher Over 2.5 line is supported by 80% of Tepatitlán’s recent matches, but only 40% of Morelia’s.

The strongest signal points to Morelia leading at the break and going on to win, although the hosts’ strong home record calls for caution. In their last five matches, Tepatitlán were trailing at half-time three times and never led, while Morelia led three times and kept a first-half clean sheet on four occasions. After the break, the hosts have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals, while the visitors scored 1.0 goal on average and won the second half in three of their five matches. Overall form also favours Morelia: they earned 10 points from their last five matches, compared with Tepatitlán’s three, and the hosts conceded an average of 3.4 goals over that period. The risk to the 2/2 pick is the hosts’ home record—they won 67% of such matches and scored an average of 2.67 goals—but their recent results more clearly support a scenario in which the visitors win from the first half onward.