Termez Surkhon vs AGMK: match statistics

AGMK sit 6th, while Termez Surkhon are only 15th, and the visitors have won 8 matches this season compared with the hosts’ 5 victories. AGMK average 1.78 goals per away match, compared with Termez’s 0.89 goals at home, while their shot conversion rate stands at 15% versus just 7% for the hosts. Termez have failed to score in 44% of their home games and have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring only 3 goals during that period. The visitors also have a slightly higher average xG, 1.45 compared with 1.38, and record an average of 3.89 shots on target away from home, which should translate into more chances. AGMK’s defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 1.56 goals away from home, but Termez’s poor finishing supports a victory for the visiting side.

The seasonal BTTS rate for both teams stands at 67%, well above the league average of 55%, creating a strong case for goals at both ends. AGMK score an average of 1.78 goals per match, while Termez Surkhon concede 1.22; meanwhile, the hosts generate a high 1.74 xG against a visiting defence that allows an average of 1.56 goals. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of matches, meaning neither defence provides consistent protection against conceding. Caution is warranted due to Termez’s recent form: they have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches and recorded BTTS in 40% of cases. However, AGMK have produced 1.96 xG per match over this period and should sustain the fixture’s attacking potential. Despite the hosts’ weaker finishing, the full-season profile and low number of clean sheets slightly favour a scenario in which both teams find the net. BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal is therefore marginally preferred, while BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score—not automatically a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 67% of Termez’s matches and 78% of AGMK’s games. Both defenses keep a clean sheet in only 11% of their appearances, while each team concedes an average of at least 1.22 goals per match. The hosts create chances worth 1.74 xG, whereas AGMK averages 1.45 xG, supporting a projection of 2.74 total goals. AGMK has conceded an average of 1.6 goals in its last 5 matches, compared with 1.4 for Termez, although the hosts’ weaker attacking output of just 0.6 goals over this period limits confidence in Over 2.5. The Over 1.5 line therefore offers a clearer edge than higher thresholds, where the risk of a 1:1 or 2:0 result increases.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an AGMK win at full-time, as Termez were level at the break in 67% of their matches, while the hosts score only 0.44 goals per game before half-time. AGMK have a clearly superior overall record: they win 56% of their matches compared with Termez’s 33%, score an average of 1.78 goals, and over the last five rounds averaged 1.2 goals per game, compared with the hosts’ 0.6. The visitors often need time to complete a turnaround, having been behind at half-time in 44% of their matches, but they score an average of 1.00 goal after the break, while Termez concede 0.67 goals during that period. The X/2 scenario is further supported by Termez’s poor current form, with four defeats in their last five matches, whereas AGMK have won two of five.