The New Saints vs Barry Town United: match statistics

Both teams come into this match on the back of five consecutive wins, but The New Saints have stronger arguments at home: they have won all 3 home fixtures, scoring an average of 2.67 goals and conceding just 0.33. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 21.33 shots and 9.67 shots on target per match, while their xG stands at 2.57 compared with Barry Town United’s 1.65 away from home. Barry are highly efficient, scoring 3.33 goals per away game with a 26% shot-to-goal conversion rate, but they have also failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road and concede an average of 1.33 goals. The New Saints also dominate possession at 74% and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, which should limit the league leaders’ strengths. An evenly matched contest between unbeaten teams is expected, but the hosts’ greater control of the game and more solid defence slightly favour a 1 result.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 67% of The New Saints' matches and in every Barry Town United fixture this season. Barry average 3.33 goals per match, while their last five games produced an average of 3.0 goals with an xG of 1.67, providing solid grounds for breaking down the hosts' defence. The New Saints are equally reliable in attack: they average 2.33 goals, while their last five matches produced as many as 3.2 goals per game and an xG of 2.72. The visitors have not kept a single clean sheet this season and concede an average of 1.33 goals, making it highly likely that the hosts will also get on the scoresheet. The risk to the pick is The New Saints' strong recent defensive record, having conceded only 0.6 goals per game across their last five appearances, but Barry's attacking form clearly supports the BTTS scenario.

The signal for at least 2 goals is very strong, as both teams have scored in 100% of their matches so far, while Barry Town United have kept no clean sheets. The hosts have averaged 3.2 goals scored over their last five matches and generated an xG of 2.72, while the visitors have averaged 3.0 goals scored over the same period. Barry Town United have a 100% record of matches finishing above both 2.5 and 3.5 goals, while The New Saints have exceeded the 2.5-goal line in 67% of their matches. At the same time, the hosts’ defence has conceded just 0.6 goals per match recently, with an xG against of 0.78, which limits the projection for the visitors to 1.25 goals and makes Over 3.5 less certain. Over 1.5 offers the highest value, as the projected total of 3.05 goals clearly exceeds this line, while the profile of both attacks minimises the risk of a very low-scoring game.

The New Saints have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.2 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Barry Town United average 3.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The hosts have been particularly strong starters: they held a lead at the break in four of their last five outings, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and allowing their opponents just 0.2. Barry are also effective, but their first-half averages stand at 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded, and they led after 45 minutes in only two of their last five matches. After the break, both teams score frequently, averaging 1.8 and 2.0 goals respectively, but The New Saints remain significantly more solid defensively, conceding 0.4 compared with Barry’s 0.6. The hosts’ edge in the quality of their early spells and defensive reliability primarily points towards a lead at the break and maintaining the victory through to full-time.