Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island: match statistics

Qingdao Youth Island come into this match on a 5-game unbeaten run, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, and, most importantly, conceding no goals. Tianjin Teda do, however, have the home advantage in attack: they average 1.55 goals per game at home, with 1.22 xG, while the visitors score just 1.00 goal away from home and fail to find the net in 36% of matches. The hosts’ defence is prone to errors, conceding an average of 1.64 goals at home, but Qingdao’s away numbers are also weak: 1.82 goals conceded and 1.72 xG allowed per game. Both teams win 27% of their respective home and away matches, while Qingdao draw as many as 36% of their games on the road, making a closely contested share of the points the most likely outcome.

Historical BTTS indicators are fairly high, standing at 62% for Tianjin and 55% for Qingdao, but current form clearly strengthens the scenario of at least one team failing to score. Qingdao have conceded no goals in their last 5 matches, kept a clean sheet in each of those fixtures, and BTTS - Yes has not occurred for them once. Tianjin have averaged 1.6 goals across their last five matches, but Qingdao have limited opponents to an average xG of just 1.22, providing grounds to expect the hosts to be contained. The visitors themselves average only 1.0 goals per match this season, while Tianjin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their games, so a Qingdao No Goal outcome also remains realistic. Although the visitors’ average xG is 1.16, Qingdao’s strong defensive run and their 0% BTTS rate in their last five appearances provide slight support for BTTS - No.

Tianjin average 1.31 goals at home, but Qingdao have kept clean sheets in their last five matches and allowed opponents just 1.22 xG per game. The visitors average 1.00 goals, while the hosts concede only 0.69 goals per match at home and keep a clean sheet in 38% of their games. Across the season, Tianjin’s matches have finished with under 3.5 goals in 85% of cases, while Qingdao’s corresponding figure is 64%, providing a clear argument for a limited number of goals. Although Tianjin’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, Qingdao’s defensive form significantly reduces the risk of an open game. The projected 2.18 goals indicate that Under 3.5 goals is the most reliable option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a draw at full-time, as Tianjin were level at the break in 62% of their matches, while Qingdao recorded the same outcome in 55%. The hosts concede just 0.23 goals per match before half-time and have kept a clean sheet in this period in as many as 77% of their games, whereas the visitors score only 0.36 goals during the first half. Tianjin remain unbeaten throughout the season, but as many as 62% of their matches have ended in draws, which limits confidence in backing a home win despite their defensive advantage. Qingdao have not lost any of their last five matches, have averaged 2.2 points per game and have conceded no goals, so following an even first half, they have genuine grounds to maintain the draw until the final whistle.