Tianjin Teda vs Zhejiang FC: match statistics

Tianjin Teda average 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded at home, while Zhejiang FC score 1.33 goals away from home and allow their opponents as many as 1.92. However, the visitors have been slightly more effective recently, scoring 13 goals in their last five matches compared with Tianjin’s 7, while also averaging 1.4 points per game versus 1.0 for the hosts. The quality of chances created is very evenly matched: average xG stands at 1.25 for Tianjin at home and 1.28 for Zhejiang away. Both sides regularly allow their opponents to create chances, as reflected by xG conceded figures of 1.32 and 1.51, respectively, so the match should produce goals at both ends. A draw is also the most likely outcome because Tianjin draw 33% of their home matches, while neither team has a clear advantage in terms of attacking efficiency in the relevant venue.

BTTS - Yes is strongly supported by both teams’ results: Tianjin has seen this outcome in 58% of matches, while Zhejiang has recorded it in 67%, compared with the league average of 64%. The current trend is even stronger, as both teams produced BTTS in as many as 80% of their last 5 matches. Tianjin averages 2.00 goals at home, while Zhejiang concedes 1.92 away from home, and the visitors score an average of 1.33 goals against hosts who concede 1.42. The home side creates more chances, with an xG of 1.78 and 6.5 shots on target per match, while Zhejiang has scored 13 goals across its last five matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Zhejiang’s low clean-sheet rate of just 8% further increases the likelihood of Tianjin scoring, while the hosts’ defensive numbers indicate that the visitors also have a realistic route to goal.

The match profile clearly favors at least two goals: Tianjin have been involved in matches with a minimum of 2 goals in 83% of cases, while Zhejiang have done so in as many as 100%. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals per match, whereas Zhejiang concede 1.92, creating a favorable matchup for Tianjin’s attack. The visitors have been highly effective recently, scoring 13 goals in their last five matches, or 2.6 per game, while both teams recorded a both-teams-to-score result in 80% of their last five appearances. The combined projected xG is 3.10, compared with the league average of 3.12 goals, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick, with significantly lower risk than the higher lines.

The strongest signal points to Zhejiang leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to full-time: in their last five matches, the visitors led at the break in 60% of games, while Tianjin failed to lead in any of them. During this period, Zhejiang averaged 1.8 goals before half-time, whereas Tianjin did not score a single first-half goal and were behind at the break in 60% of their matches. Across the season as a whole, the hosts have stronger underlying metrics, but current form clearly favors Zhejiang: the visitors have recently averaged 2.6 goals per match compared with Tianjin’s 1.4 and won 40% of those games, versus 20% for the hosts. After the break, Tianjin have shown they can respond, averaging 1.4 goals recently, while Zhejiang concede 1.2 goals in that period, making the HT/FT scenario of a Zhejiang lead followed by a full-time draw a significant alternative. Nevertheless, Zhejiang’s advantage in the opening stages and Tianjin’s poor recent first-half performances make the 2/2 scenario the most likely.