Tlaxcala vs Cancún: match statistics
Tlaxcala vs Cancún: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tlaxcala played Cancún in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 26 September 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Tlaxcala: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cancún: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tlaxcala scores 1.56 and concedes 2.33 goals per match. Cancún scores 1.89 and concedes 1.22. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tlaxcala 78%, Cancún 44%. Over 2.5: Tlaxcala 78%, Cancún 56%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Cancún has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.33. Tlaxcala: 10.2 shots per match, Cancún: 13.8.
Match halves
Tlaxcala: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00. Cancún: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.11.
Goals by minute
Tlaxcala: 76-90+ (5 goals). Cancún: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tlaxcala score an average of 2.00 goals per match at home, while Cancún concede 1.75 goals away and allow opponents an average of 1.99 xG. The hosts create chances worth 1.49 xG on their own ground, higher than Cancún’s away attacking figure of 1.16, giving them a slight edge in chance quality. However, Cancún have performed more solidly over the season, recording 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats while conceding just 11 goals, whereas Tlaxcala have lost 5 of 9 matches and conceded 21 goals. The last five matches also slightly favor the visitors in terms of stability, as they have scored 13 goals and suffered only one defeat, although their away scoring rate stands at just 1.25 goals per game. Since Cancún have won only 25% of their away matches, while Tlaxcala have won half of their home fixtures, a narrow home victory appears to be the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS scenario is primarily favored by current form: over their last 5 matches, both teams recorded it in 80% and 60% of games, respectively. Tlaxcala scored an average of 1.8 goals during this period but conceded as many as 2.0, while Cancún scored 2.6 goals per match and conceded only 1.0. At home, the hosts generate a high average xG of 2.04 and register 7.0 shots on target per match, while Cancún’s weak defense allows opponents 1.99 xG and concedes an average of 1.75 goals. The visitors have a lower season xG of 1.16, but recently generated 1.99 xG, significantly boosting their chances of exploiting Tlaxcala’s defense, which has conceded 10 goals in its last five appearances. Tlaxcala’s low season BTTS rate of 20% and 60% clean-sheet rate provide a counterargument, but the current form of both teams more strongly supports a goal for each side.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Tlaxcala have surpassed this line in 100% of their matches, while Cancún have done so in 75%. The hosts average 2.04 xG and 7.0 shots on target per match, while Cancún’s defence allows opponents 1.99 xG and concedes an average of 1.75 goals. Both teams are also in strong attacking form: over their last five matches, Tlaxcala have scored 1.8 goals per game and Cancún as many as 2.6, with 80% of matches going Over 2.5 goals for both sides. However, Cancún average only 1.16 xG across the season, while Tlaxcala have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches, meaning the projected total of 3.10 goals does not provide an equally strong edge on Over 2.5 or Over 3.5. The 1.5 line remains the safest option, as the data from both teams clearly points to at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tlaxcala has a clearly stronger home profile: they score an average of 2.4 goals, concede just 0.8, and win 60% of their matches, while Cancún concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 2.04 compared with the visitors’ 1.16, while shots on target stand at 7.0 versus 3.75. At half-time, Tlaxcala held the lead in 40% of matches, while Cancún were level after 45 minutes in 50%, which primarily supports a narrow home lead or a draw in the first half. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.6 goals and concede none, whereas Cancún score just 0.5 and concede 1.0 goal. The visitors’ recent form, with 2.6 goals scored per match across their last five appearances, reduces confidence in the forecast; nevertheless, the scenario of Tlaxcala leading at the break and securing the final victory remains the strongest HT/FT option, 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tlaxcala | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cancún is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Tlaxcala · 1.6 pts / match - Cancún
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.56 goals / match - Tlaxcala · 1.89 goals / match - Cancún
Cancún is 91% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.33 goals / match - Tlaxcala · 1.22 goals / match - Cancún
Tlaxcala scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
Cancún scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Tlaxcala keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tlaxcala
Over / Under - Cancún
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Tlaxcala · 1.33 pts / match - Cancún
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tlaxcala - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +9 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tlaxcala
Cancún
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tlaxcala | Liga | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.89 | 3.20 | • 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 55% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 78% | 61% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 24% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Tlaxcala 1 - 0 - 1 Cancún. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tlaxcala vs Cancún?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tlaxcala 4:1 Cancún. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tlaxcala and Cancún?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tlaxcala won 1, Cancún won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tlaxcala vs Cancún?
Tlaxcala score 1.56 goals per game on average and Cancún 1.89. The Ascenso MX average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Tlaxcala's matches and 44% of Cancún's.
What form are Tlaxcala and Cancún in?
Over the last 5 games Tlaxcala have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cancún 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tlaxcala vs Cancún?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tlaxcala vs Cancún: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.