Tobol vs Aktobe: match statistics
Tobol vs Aktobe: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol played Aktobe in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 31 October 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Tobol: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Aktobe: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 1.38 and concedes 1.34 goals per match. Aktobe scores 1.52 and concedes 1.28. League average: 2.54 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 59%, Aktobe 62%. Over 2.5: Tobol 48%, Aktobe 55%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.50. Tobol: 12.8 shots per match, Aktobe: 13.1.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.66. Aktobe: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 16-30 (10 goals). Aktobe: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.54 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tobol have won 71% of their home matches, while Aktobe have won just 29% of their away games and lost half of them. At home, the hosts score an average of 1.93 goals with an xG of 1.84, while the visitors concede an average of 1.57 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Tobol create more attacking threat, averaging 5.43 shots on target at home compared with Aktobe’s 3.86 away, while their opponents have failed to score in 29% of their away matches. In their last five games, Tobol have recorded 3 wins and scored 11 goals, whereas Aktobe have won twice and conceded 9. Although Aktobe sit higher in the table, Tobol’s home advantage points to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Tobol’s games and 100% of Aktobe’s, providing a strong indication in favor of BTTS - Yes. Over this period, Tobol averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Aktobe averaged 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Across the season, the hosts average 1.67 goals, while the visitors concede 1.57, making a Tobol goal look likely. The bigger question is whether Aktobe will score: Tobol have kept a clean sheet in 47% of matches, although the visitors average 1.36 goals and generate an xG of 1.35. Despite the hosts’ solid defense, the current scoring form of both attacks tips the balance toward a scenario in which both teams score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Tobol average 1.67 goals scored, while Aktobe concede 1.57, giving the hosts a solid basis to find the net. The visitors average 1.36 goals, although Tobol concede just 1.00, so I take a more cautious view of their expected return at 1.20 goals. In their last five matches, the teams scored 2.2 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively, and at least two goals were scored in 73% of Tobol’s matches and 79% of Aktobe’s. With a projected total of 2.90 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick; the 2.5 line is less convincing, having been surpassed in 53% and 57% of these teams’ matches, respectively.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tobol led at the break in 53% of their home matches, while Aktobe were trailing at half-time in 36% of their away games. The hosts score an average of 0.73 goals before the break and concede 0.27, supporting the case for an early lead. Tobol also have the overall edge: they win 60% of their home matches, while Aktobe lose 50% of their away games; the hosts also average 5.8 shots on target compared with 3.86 for the visitors. Tobol won the second half in 47% of their home matches, compared with Aktobe’s 21% on the road, giving them a basis to hold on to any lead. Caution is warranted, however, as Aktobe led at the break in four of their last five matches. Even so, the overall data most strongly support Tobol leading both at half-time and at full-time in the HT/FT market.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tobol is 25% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Tobol · 1.6 pts / match - Aktobe
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aktobe is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Tobol · 1.52 goals / match - Aktobe
Aktobe is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.34 goals / match - Tobol · 1.28 goals / match - Aktobe
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (21 of 29 matches), while Aktobe keeps a clean sheet in 24% (7 of 29 matches).
Aktobe scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 14% (4 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tobol
Over / Under - Aktobe
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aktobe is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - Tobol · 1.62 pts / match - Aktobe
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Aktobe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (10 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
Aktobe
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.72 | 2.54 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 55% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 50% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 26% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 68% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Tobol 1 - 1 - 1 Aktobe. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Aktobe?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 2:3 Aktobe. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Aktobe?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Tobol won 1, Aktobe won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Aktobe?
Tobol score 1.38 goals per game on average and Aktobe 1.52. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Tobol's matches and 62% of Aktobe's.
What form are Tobol and Aktobe in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Aktobe 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Aktobe?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs Aktobe: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.