Tobol vs Astana: match statistics

Although Astana sit 3rd in the table and Tobol 7th, the home record favors the hosts: they have won 67% of their home matches, while the visitors have won 17% of their away games. Tobol average 1.75 goals and create chances worth 1.78 xG at home, whereas Astana score just 0.92 goals per game away from home, with 1.42 xG. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, and their average of 1.42 goals conceded is higher than Tobol’s 1.17 at home. Both teams have won three of their last five matches, but Astana have conceded only 4 goals compared with Tobol’s 7, which tempers confidence in the prediction. Despite Astana’s higher position in the table, Tobol’s home form gives them the best chance of winning.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS - No is Astana’s away scoring record: they average 0.92 goals and fail to score in 50% of away matches. Tobol concede just 0.62 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. On the other hand, the hosts average 2.38 goals at home, while Astana concede 1.42 away from home, making it more likely that the visitors will be the side to draw a blank. Astana’s recent form provides some counterweight, with an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches; however, their away scoring struggles carry greater weight in this market assessment.

Tobol average 2.38 goals at home, while Astana concede 1.42 goals away, giving the hosts a solid basis to score at least twice. Their average xG figures support this: 2.01 for Tobol’s attack and 1.49 for Astana’s defence. Although the visitors score just 0.92 goals per away match, they have averaged 1.8 goals across their last five games, giving them some potential to contribute to the scoreline. At least two goals have been scored in 85% of Tobol’s home matches and 67% of Astana’s away games, making Over 1.5 a stronger pick than the less clear-cut Over 2.5 line.

Tobol have a strong case to take the lead at the break: in the matches analysed, they were ahead at half-time in 10 of 13 games (77%), scoring an average of 1.38 goals in the first half while conceding just 0.23. Astana, in the corresponding sample, were trailing at half-time in 4 of 12 matches (33%) and averaged only 0.42 first-half goals, making a Tobol lead after 45 minutes the most likely outcome. Tobol’s overall record also supports them holding on to that advantage: 12 wins in 13 matches (92%), with averages of 2.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded, compared with 0.92 and 1.42 respectively for Astana. Tobol average 1.00 goals in second halves, while Astana concede 0.75, further supporting a home win. However, the visitors’ recent form tempers confidence in the pick: they have not conceded before half-time in any of their last five matches, so a draw at the break followed by a Tobol win remains a significant alternative.