Toluca vs Atlas: match statistics
Toluca vs Atlas: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Atlas in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 12 September 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez. Final score: 5:2.
Current form
Toluca: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Atlas: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 2.00 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Atlas scores 1.43 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 50%, Atlas 57%. Over 2.5: Toluca 67%, Atlas 43%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.97 vs 1.27. Toluca: 18.7 shots per match, Atlas: 11.1.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 1.00. Atlas: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 31-45+ (3 goals). Atlas: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca head into the match on a run of 5 consecutive wins, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 1, while Atlas have scored 8 goals in their last five matches and suffered one defeat. At home, the hosts create significantly more, averaging 23 shots and 7.33 on target per match, with an xG of 2.47, compared with Atlas’s away figures of 10.33 shots, 5.67 on target and an xG of 1.36. Toluca score 2.67 goals per home game and dominate possession at 69%, which should allow them to control the flow of the match. However, Atlas are highly effective away from home, having won all 3 of their matches, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.67, so their chances of finding the net should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, Toluca’s superiority in the quality of chances created and their current form point to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The scenario in which both teams score is slightly more likely, as Atlas averages 2.0 goals away from home and has not recorded a single scoreless match throughout the season. Toluca has conceded an average of 1.75 goals at home, with opponents posting an average xG of 1.55, giving Atlas a solid basis to score despite the hosts’ excellent recent run. Meanwhile, Toluca has averaged 2.4 goals and generated 2.01 xG across its last five matches, while Atlas has conceded 1.2 goals per game over the same period, with an xG against of 1.81. The only argument against BTTS - Yes is that just 20% of Toluca’s last five matches produced this outcome, along with only 0.2 goals conceded per game. However, Atlas’s attacking numbers and defensive vulnerability provide slightly stronger support for the “Yes” option.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Toluca are in excellent form, having won their last five matches and scored a total of 12 goals, averaging 2.4 per game. During this period, the hosts created chances worth 2.01 xG, while Atlas allowed opponents 1.81 xG, which supports the expectation of a strong Toluca performance. However, Atlas average 2.0 goals scored away from home and register 5.67 shots on target per match, while Toluca’s season statistics show that they concede 1.75 goals at home. Despite the attacking potential of both sides, only 25% of Toluca’s matches and 33% of Atlas’s matches went over the 3.5-goal line, compared with a league average of 2.8. The strongest option therefore remains Under 3.5 goals, as the data points to a match finishing around 2-3 goals, without equally strong indications of four or more goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is Toluca leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won their last five fixtures, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.2. In those five matches, Toluca led at half-time in 60% of cases, never trailed, and conceded an average of 0.0 goals before the break. Atlas boasts three away wins and an average of 2.0 goals scored, but its xGA is as high as 1.78, compared with Toluca’s attacking xG of 1.21. After the break, the hosts’ current-form advantage is even more pronounced: they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, and have won the second half in all of their last five appearances. Atlas remains dangerous, which is why the draw at half-time and Toluca win scenario receives a substantial 25% probability, but the hosts’ stronger start makes the 1/1 pick the most likely outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Toluca · 1.4 pts / match - Atlas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Toluca · 1.43 goals / match - Atlas
Toluca is 93% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Toluca · 1.29 goals / match - Atlas
Toluca scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Atlas keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Atlas scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Atlas
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.33 pts / match - Toluca · 1.43 pts / match - Atlas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Atlas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.67 | 2.76 | • 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 25% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 67% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 84% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Toluca 0 - 2 - 0 Atlas. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlas?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 5:2 Atlas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Atlas?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Toluca won 0, Atlas won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca score 2.00 goals per game on average and Atlas 1.43. The Liga MX average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 57% of Atlas's.
What form are Toluca and Atlas in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Atlas 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Atlas?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Atlas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.