Toluca vs Monterrey: match statistics
Toluca vs Monterrey: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toluca played Monterrey in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 8 November 2026. Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Toluca: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Monterrey: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toluca scores 2.07 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Monterrey scores 1.86 and concedes 1.50. League average: 3.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toluca 73%, Monterrey 64%. Over 2.5: Toluca 67%, Monterrey 57%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 2.01 vs 1.80. Toluca: 19.2 shots per match, Monterrey: 16.1.
Match halves
Toluca: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 1.13. Monterrey: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Toluca: 31-45+ (7 goals). Monterrey: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 3.01 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-1. Average goals 3.75, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca hold a clear attacking advantage at home, averaging 2.57 goals and creating chances worth 2.48 xG per match, while Monterrey average 1.67 goals and 1.44 xG away from home. The hosts also record an average of 24 shots per home match, compared with Monterrey’s 12.83 shots on the road, boosting Toluca’s chances of taking the initiative. Recent form favours Monterrey: they have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Toluca have failed to win any, recording 4 draws and a defeat. The hosts’ defence is also a concern after conceding 9 goals in those 5 games, although Monterrey concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home and have lost half of their away matches. Toluca’s advantage in the volume and quality of chances created outweighs their recent dip in form, but the risk of a draw remains significant.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has occurred in 63% of Toluca’s matches and 67% of Monterrey’s, both above the league average of 62%. In their last five matches, both teams scored in 100% of Toluca’s games and 80% of Monterrey’s, reinforcing the case for BTTS - Yes. Toluca averages 2.0 goals and generates an xG of 2.07, while Monterrey concedes an average of 1.67 goals. The visitors also have a strong chance of scoring: they average 1.67 goals, and Toluca has conceded an average of 1.8 goals over its last five matches. The risk that either side fails to score remains real, but the BTTS frequency and both teams’ recent attacking form point towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Toluca average 2.00 goals per match, while Monterrey average 1.67; both teams concede 1.38 and 1.67 goals respectively, pointing to scoring potential at both ends. The hosts record an average xG of 2.07 and 7.25 shots on target per match, while the visitors post 1.44 xG and 4.17 shots on target. In their last five matches, both sides went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, although across the full sample this occurred in 63% of Toluca matches and 50% of Monterrey matches. However, the strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has landed in 100% of Monterrey matches and 63% of Toluca matches, while the projected total of 3.30 goals gives it a clearer edge than the higher lines.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome, although Toluca’s advantage in season statistics means this should not be considered a confident pick. In their last five matches, both teams were drawing at the break twice, while across the full period analysed, Monterrey went into half-time level in 3 of 6 matches. Toluca have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches and won none, whereas Monterrey have shared the points twice. The case for the score remaining level is also supported by the fact that the second half ended in a draw in 60% of Toluca’s and 80% of Monterrey’s last five matches. The hosts do post a higher average xG—2.07 compared with the visitors’ 1.44—so a Toluca win remains a significant alternative, but recent results lend stronger support to the X/X HT/FT outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Monterrey is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Toluca · 1.6 pts / match - Monterrey
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
2.07 goals / match - Toluca · 1.86 goals / match - Monterrey
Toluca is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - Toluca · 1.5 goals / match - Monterrey
Toluca scores in 93% of matches (14 of 15 matches), while Monterrey keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 matches).
Monterrey scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Monterrey
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.73 pts / match - Toluca · 1.64 pts / match - Monterrey
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 40%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Monterrey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toluca
Monterrey
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.47 | 3.01 | ▲ 3.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 53% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 22% | • 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 70% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 85% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Toluca 3 - 0 - 1 Monterrey. Average goals 3.75, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Monterrey?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 4:0 Monterrey. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Monterrey?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Toluca won 3, Monterrey won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca score 2.07 goals per game on average and Monterrey 1.86. The Liga MX average is 3.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Toluca's matches and 64% of Monterrey's.
What form are Toluca and Monterrey in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Monterrey 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toluca vs Monterrey: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.