Toronto vs Chicago Fire: match statistics

Toronto remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Chicago Fire have collected 8 points over the same period compared with the hosts’ 9. Toronto draw as many as 58% of their home matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.92 goals per game, which points towards both teams scoring. Chicago have the stronger overall season record, with 11 wins and only 28 goals conceded compared with Toronto’s 5 victories and 38 goals conceded, but they win just 36% of their away matches. The attacking potential of both teams is very similar: Toronto average 1.92 goals at home with an xG of 1.43, while Chicago average 1.73 goals away from home with an xG of 1.41. The visitors’ superior season performance is offset by Toronto’s solid current run and clear tendency to draw at home, making a share of the points the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: Toronto has recorded BTTS in 60% of matches, while Chicago Fire has done so in as many as 82%, compared with the league average of 63%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 100% of cases, scoring 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, while conceding 1.4 goals per match each. Toronto averages 2.0 goals at home, whereas Chicago Fire scores an average of 1.73, and the visitors’ defence concedes an average of 1.55 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG: 1.76 for Toronto and 1.41 for Chicago, with opponents’ xG conceded standing at 1.57 and 1.20 respectively. Additionally, Chicago keeps a clean sheet in only 18% of matches, making the most likely scenario one in which both teams score at least once.

Toronto score an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Chicago concede 1.55, giving the hosts a very solid foundation to score at least once. The visitors average 1.73 goals, whereas Toronto concede an average of 1.10, and both teams have scored 9 and 8 goals respectively in their last five matches. The 1.5 line has been exceeded in 80% of Toronto’s matches and as many as 91% of Chicago’s, compared with a league average of 3.20 goals per match. Additionally, both teams have recorded goals from both sides in 100% of their last five matches, while their combined xG profile points to approximately 3.04 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as it requires only two goals, while the attacking data and high regularity of goal-filled matches clearly support it.

Toronto has a clear home profile: it wins 70% of its matches, averages 2.00 goals scored and concedes just 1.10, while Chicago allows opponents to score 1.55 goals away from home. Toronto’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with average xG of 1.76 compared with the visitors’ 1.41, while the hosts record 16.2 shots per match against Chicago’s 11.73. Toronto led at the break in 40% of its matches, but most often went into half-time level (50%), making the draw–home win scenario a significant alternative. The strongest signal in favour of 1/1 comes from the second half: Toronto averages 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded after the break, while Chicago has scored just 0.60 goals per match in the second half across its last five games and conceded 1.00. Chicago can make strong starts, leading at half-time in 60% of its last five matches, but its weaker away defence and Toronto’s greater strength at home increase the hosts’ chances of maintaining an early lead.