TPS vs Ilves: match statistics

I back the home win ('1') because TPS wins 75% of home matches and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of games, conceding just 0.75 goals per home game on average. Ilves have no away wins (0%), lose 63% of away matches and concede 2.63 goals per away game on average, which strongly favors TPS’s defense. In attack the hosts generate 1.44 xG at home versus Ilves’s 1.5 xG away, while average goals are 1.75 for TPS at home and 1.5 for Ilves away with shot conversion 16% vs 12%. In the last 5 matches TPS scored 8 goals and has 1.4 points per game, Ilves scored 7 goals and 1.0 point per game; both teams conceded 7 goals, but the points balance favors the hosts. Considering the superior defense (0.75 vs 2.63), higher finishing efficiency and strong home record (75% wins), I assign 72% probability to a TPS win, 15% to a draw and 13% to an Ilves win.

The dominant signal for BTTS - Yes is Ilves' high rate of matches with both teams scoring — season BTTS 88% and 80% in the last 5 — while TPS has season BTTS 43% (60% in the last 5), which favors the both teams to score scenario. Ilves has scored 25 goals and conceded 29 this season, conceding an average of 2.63 goals per match, whereas TPS at home scores an average of 1.86 goals and has 57% clean sheets at home, so we have a clash of a team that frequently concedes with a team capable of keeping 0. In the last 5 matches both teams produce similar xG: TPS has 1.87 xG per match versus Ilves 1.75, and xG against is 1.61 for TPS and 1.46 for Ilves, which means chances are balanced and goals from both sides are realistic. Ilves averages 12.88 shots per match at 12% conversion, while TPS averages 9.43 shots at 20% conversion — Ilves creates more chances, TPS is more efficient converting them, which increases the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Considering Ilves' dominant BTTS indicator (88% vs 43% TPS) and form (80% vs 60% in the last 5), I tip BTTS 'Yes' with a probability of 75% and 'No' 25%.

I estimate total goals at approximately 3.05 (TPS 1.59, Ilves 1.46) based on averaging xG and goal data. Calculation: TPS has xG_for 1.29 and Ilves concedes xG 1.88 — average (1.29+1.88)/2 = 1.59 for TPS; Ilves has xG_for 1.50 and TPS concedes xG 1.42 — average (1.50+1.42)/2 = 1.46 for Ilves. Seasonal figures confirm an offensive profile: TPS scores 1.86 and concedes 1.14, Ilves scores 1.50 and concedes as much as 2.63; additionally TPS has a shot conversion rate of 20% on 9.43 shots, and Ilves 12% on 12.88 shots, which favors goals from both sides. Over and BTTS indicators are high — Over 1.5 occurs for TPS in 71% and for Ilves in 100% (average 86%), Over 2.5 is 57% and 88% (average 73%), and in the last 5 matches of both teams Over 2.5 is 80%. Therefore the strongest signal from available data is the Over 1.5 play (pick: over 1.5) with an estimated probability around 86%, although Over 2.5 (~73%) is also a realistic scenario.

TPS has a 57% win rate this season versus 0% for Ilves and averages 1.86 goals per match against Ilves’s 1.50, which strongly supports a home Full-Time triumph. At Half-Time TPS led in 43% of matches and scores an average of 1.00 goal by the break, while Ilves concedes an average of 1.75 goals before half-time and were trailing at the break in 50% of games, so a TPS lead at the break is highly probable. Although Ilves’s xG is slightly higher (1.50 vs 1.29 for TPS), the hosts have better efficiency (conversion 20% versus 12%) with fewer shots (9.43 vs 12.88), which increases the chance of holding the lead. In the last five matches TPS led at the break in only 20% of cases, which also gives a realistic chance of an HT draw and thereby adds notable weight to the X/1 scenario as an alternative. In summary, the strongest signal is 1/1 (TPS leads at Half-Time and wins Full-Time).