Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics
Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Trans played Tallinna FC Levadia in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 4 July 2026. Venue: Kreenholmi Staadion. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Trans: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Tallinna FC Levadia: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Trans scores 0.65 and concedes 2.35 goals per match. Tallinna FC Levadia scores 2.56 and concedes 0.83. League average: 3.02 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Trans 35%, Tallinna FC Levadia 72%. Over 2.5: Trans 71%, Tallinna FC Levadia 72%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Tallinna FC Levadia has higher xG: 2.31 vs 1.60. Trans: 13.5 shots per match, Tallinna FC Levadia: 19.7.
Match halves
Trans: half-time lead 12%, second-half goals 0.29. Tallinna FC Levadia: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.28.
Goals by minute
Trans: 31-45+ (4 goals). Tallinna FC Levadia: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.02 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-5. Average goals 3.80, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tallinna FC Levadia holds a clear advantage in the table and efficiency: they sit 1st with a record of 13 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss and a goal difference of 46-15, while Trans is 10th with 3 wins, 1 draw and 13 losses and a 11-40 record. The gap translates into match parameters: Levadia away scores on average 2.56 goals and concedes 0.89, with average xG 2.51 vs xG against 1.08; Trans at home scores 1.13 and concedes 1.63 with xG 1.87 and xG against 1.6. The visitors also create more and better chances: 21.56 shots and 7.56 shots on target per away match vs Trans’s 16.13 shots and 4.5 on target at home, with conversion rates 12% vs 7% and possession 56% vs 48%. Form trends reinforce Levadia as favorites — in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Trans, despite 11 goals in their last five, have only 0.8 points and conceded 6 goals in that period, indicating issues converting chances into points. Considering higher xG (2.51 vs 1.87), Levadia’s 89% away win rate and 0% away losses in the data, I tip an away win; I propose probability distribution 10% for the home side, 12% for a draw and 78% for a Levadia win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Tallinna FC Levadia has a seasonal BTTS rate of 89% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with an average xG of 2.51 and 7.56 shots on target per game and only 11% clean sheets, which strongly indicates the visitors regularly score while also conceding. Trans away records a seasonal BTTS of 56% and an average of 2.56 goals scored, but their BTTS in the last 5 matches dropped to 20%, reducing the hosts’ reliability as a goals guarantee. Offensive comparison favors Levadia: xG 2.51 vs 2.12, 21.56 shots vs 17.89 and 7.56 vs 6.0 shots on target, while the league averages 3.01 goals per match, which supports Goal/Goal outcomes. Additionally, Levadia have scored 46 goals this season versus Trans’s 11, and Trans have conceded 40 goals; so despite Trans’s higher clean sheet rate 44% (vs 11% Levadia), Levadia’s scoring advantage and consistent BTTS record prevail and point to a bet on BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect approximately 3.40 goals in total: Trans ~1.60 and Tallinna FC Levadia ~1.80, calculated as the average of team offensive xG (2.12 vs 2.51) and opponent defensive xG (1.08 for both). Seasonal indicators also point to significant scoring potential: seasonal goals averages 2.56 for hosts and 2.56 for visitors, percentage of matches over 2.5 goals is 67% for Trans and 78% for Levadia, and BTTS is 56% vs 89%. A Poisson model with an expected total of 3.40 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈85%, P(Over 2.5) ≈66% and P(Over 3.5) ≈44%, making Over 1.5 the strongest and most probable bet. Shooting volume confirms scoring potential: Trans averages 17.9 shots (6.0 on target) with a 14% conversion, Levadia 21.6 shots (7.56 on target) with a 12% conversion. Considering xG, high percentages of matches above 2.5 and strong BTTS rates, I recommend betting Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: over) as the safest option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Trans led at the break in 6 of the matches (67%), scoring an average of 1.33 goals before halftime and conceding only 0.11, which demonstrates strong home starts. However, Tallinna FC Levadia shows dominant form and metrics: they win 89% of their season matches, have a higher xG of 2.51 versus Trans’s 2.12, and register more shots per game (21.56 vs 17.89). In second halves the visitors average 2.11 points compared to the home side’s 1.78, and the post-break goal tally is 9 for Levadia versus 5 for Trans, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, the share of matches with both teams scoring is 56% for Trans and 89% for Levadia, and the average goals per game are around 3.3–3.4 (3.33 vs 3.44), so the probability of changes and goals in the second half is high. On this basis the most reliable signal is an HT/FT 1/2: Trans leads at the break (67%), but Levadia has the statistical assets to win by full-time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Trans | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Trans · 2 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 294% better for: goals scored per match.
0.65 goals / match - Trans · 2.56 goals / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Tallinna FC Levadia is 183% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.35 goals / match - Trans · 0.83 goals / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Trans scores in 47% of matches (8 of 17 matches), while Tallinna FC Levadia keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
Tallinna FC Levadia scores in 100% of matches (18 of 18 matches), while Trans keeps a clean sheet in 18% (3 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Trans
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Levadia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 190% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.71 pts / match - Trans · 2.06 pts / match - Tallinna FC Levadia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Trans - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 12% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tallinna FC Levadia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 72%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Trans
Tallinna FC Levadia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Trans | Liga | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.00 | 3.02 | ▲ 3.39 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 56% | ▲ 72% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 64% | ▲ 72% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 24% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 73% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 94% | 89% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Trans 0 - 0 - 5 Tallinna FC Levadia. Average goals 3.80, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
The Meistriliiga match finished Trans 1:3 Tallinna FC Levadia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Trans and Tallinna FC Levadia?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Trans won 0, Tallinna FC Levadia won 5 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
Trans score 0.65 goals per game on average and Tallinna FC Levadia 2.56. The Meistriliiga average is 3.02 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Trans's matches and 72% of Tallinna FC Levadia's.
What form are Trans and Tallinna FC Levadia in?
Over the last 5 games Trans have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Tallinna FC Levadia 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
The statistical background for Trans vs Tallinna FC Levadia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.