TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka: match statistics
The match is shaping up to be a close encounter between two teams in poor form. TransMara Sugar have a slightly better home record (20% wins, 30% draws), but they have not won any of their last 5 overall matches, averaging just 0.4 points per game. Sofapaka show an even weaker away form (22% wins, 67% losses) and have also failed to win any of their last 5 matches. Both teams struggle with efficiency - the hosts fail to score in 70% of their home games, while the visitors fail to score in 67% of their away matches. The xG metrics are similar (0.79 vs 0.68), suggesting comparable offensive potential. Considering both teams' poor form, high FTS% rates, and the fact that both sides have drawn twice in their last 5 matches, the most likely outcome is a share of the points, although the hosts have a slight home advantage.
TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
TransMara Sugar played Sofapaka in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 14 February 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
TransMara Sugar: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Sofapaka: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
TransMara Sugar scores 0.85 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Sofapaka scores 0.70 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: TransMara Sugar 40%, Sofapaka 30%. Over 2.5: TransMara Sugar 25%, Sofapaka 30%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
TransMara Sugar has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.35. TransMara Sugar: 11.1 shots per match, Sofapaka: 9.0.
Match halves
TransMara Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.30. Sofapaka: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
TransMara Sugar: 0-15 (11 goals). Sofapaka: 0-15 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 2.03 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match is shaping up to be a close encounter between two teams in poor form. TransMara Sugar have a slightly better home record (20% wins, 30% draws), but they have not won any of their last 5 overall matches, averaging just 0.4 points per game. Sofapaka show an even weaker away form (22% wins, 67% losses) and have also failed to win any of their last 5 matches. Both teams struggle with efficiency - the hosts fail to score in 70% of their home games, while the visitors fail to score in 67% of their away matches. The xG metrics are similar (0.79 vs 0.68), suggesting comparable offensive potential. Considering both teams' poor form, high FTS% rates, and the fact that both sides have drawn twice in their last 5 matches, the most likely outcome is a share of the points, although the hosts have a slight home advantage.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| TransMara Sugar | Sofapaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 24% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
TransMara Sugar is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - TransMara Sugar · 0.2 pts / match - Sofapaka
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
TransMara Sugar is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
0.85 goals / match - TransMara Sugar · 0.7 goals / match - Sofapaka
TransMara Sugar is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - TransMara Sugar · 1.3 goals / match - Sofapaka
TransMara Sugar scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Sofapaka keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
Sofapaka scores in 40% of matches (8 of 20 matches), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
Over / Under - Sofapaka
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sofapaka is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - TransMara Sugar · 1.1 pts / match - Sofapaka
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sofapaka - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 15%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
TransMara Sugar
Sofapaka
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| TransMara Sugar | Liga | Sofapaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.85 | 2.03 | • 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 45% | ▼ 30% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 34% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | • 35% | 35% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 15% | 28% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal after half-time | • 30% | 30% | • 30% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: TransMara Sugar 0 - 1 - 0 Sofapaka. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished TransMara Sugar 3:1 Sofapaka. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka?
TransMara Sugar score 0.85 goals per game on average and Sofapaka 0.70. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 40% of TransMara Sugar's matches and 30% of Sofapaka's.
What form are TransMara Sugar and Sofapaka in?
Over the last 5 games TransMara Sugar have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Sofapaka 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.